Economic Growth in the Information Age

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1、EconometricsVolume3:EconomicGrowthintheInformationAgeThispageintentionallyleftblankEconometricsVolume3:EconomicGrowthintheInformationAgeDaleW.JorgensonTheMITPressCambridge,MassachusettsLondon,England©2002DaleW.JorgensonAllrightsreserved.Nopartofthisbookmaybereprod

2、ucedinanyformbyanyelectronicormechanicalmeans(includingphotocopying,recording,andinformationstorageandretrieval)withoutpermissioninwritingfromthepublisher.ThisbookwassetinPalatinobyWindfallSoftwareusingZzTEXandwasprintedandboundintheUnitedStatesofAmerica.Libraryof

3、CongressCataloging-in-PublicationDataJorgenson,DaleWeldeau,1933–Econometrics/DaleW.Jorgenson.p.cm.Includesbibliographicalreferencesandindex.ISBN0-262-10094-0(v.3:hc:alk.paper)1.Production(Economictheory)—Econometricmodels.I.Title.HB241.J672000330
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5195—dc2199-0

4、46138ContentsListofFiguresixListofTablesxiiiPrefacexviiDaleW.JorgensonListofSourcesxxix1InformationTechnologyandtheU.S.Economy1DaleW.Jorgenson1.1TheInformationAge31.2TheRoleofInformationTechnology121.3TheAmericanGrowthResurgence221.4EconomicsonInternetTime39Notes4

5、02ComputersandGrowth43DaleW.JorgensonandKevinJ.Stiroh2.1Introduction432.2ComputerInvestment452.3AModelofComputerServices492.4ComputerStocksandServices552.5ComputersandGrowth612.6Conclusion67Notes683RaisingtheSpeedLimit:U.S.EconomicGrowthintheInformationAge71DaleW.

6、JorgensonandKevinJ.Stiroh3.1Introduction713.2TheRecentU.S.GrowthExperience74viContents3.3SettingtheSpeedLimit1033.4IndustryProductivity1103.5Conclusions123AppendixA:EstimatingOutput126AppendixB:EstimatingCapitalServices129AppendixC:EstimatingLaborInput141AppendixD

7、:EstimatingIndustry-LevelProductivity144AppendixE:Extrapolationfor1999145Notes1464WhyHastheEnergy-OutputRatioFalleninChina?151RichardF.Garbaccio,MunS.Ho,andDaleW.Jorgenson4.1Introduction1514.2ReviewofPreviousWorkonChina’sEnergy-OutputRatio1524.3ProblemswithOfficial

8、ChineseData1554.4ConstructingaConsistentDataSet1584.5AMethodologyforDecomposingtheChangeinEnergyIntensity1644.6DecompositionoftheChangeinChina’sEnergyIn