中国互联网：充满挑战的宏观环境下的在线广告市场

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1、COREChinaInternetOnlineAdsMarketTransitioninginAChallengingMacroEnvironmentINDUSTRYUPDATEU.S.InternetPOSITIVEUnchangedEquityResearch14June2019TheKeytakeaway:China’sonlineadsmarketisfollowingtheoverwhelmingshiftofuserbehavior,transitioningfromtraditionaladsformats(search,brand,listing,etc.)tofe

2、edads.Theongoingmigrationofusertimespentandviewershiphasbeenobservedsincelastyear(“EverythingIsAccelerating,ExceptStockPrices”,Aug15,2018),as11.4%ofusertimewasoccupiedbytheshort-videocategoryasofDec18,vs.5.4%inDec17,gainingmarketsharefromallotherverticals.Butitwasnotuntilthepast1Qearningsseasont

3、hattheStreetstartedtorealizetheseriousnessofthefinancialimpact,asalmostallmediacompanieswerehitbythepricepressureonadsfrominventoryoversupplyofshort-videoapps,specificallyfromByteDance(private,notcovered).Moreover,thecurrentchallengingmacroconditionandrelativelysaturatedInternetadspenetrationhav

4、efurtheramplifiedtheimpact,asmerchants’pursuanceforhigherROIiscausingadsdollarstoswingtoqualityfeedads.Underourcoverage,wethinkTencent,BaiduandWeiboarefacingcompetitivepressurefromByteDance,whileAlibabaisseeingarelativelylessimpact,duemainlytoeCommerchants’stickinesstotheplatformanditsvastamount

5、ofrecommendationfeedinventories.Math:OuranalysisshowsthatByteDance’sfourflagshipapps(Douyin/TouTiao/Xigua/Huoshan)intotalgenerated6.3bn(2.6bn/2.2bn/0.8bn/0.6bn)dailymonetizedfeedadsinventoriesinMar18,vs.1.1bn~1.2bneachforWeixinMoments,BaiduMobileandWeibo.ThisimpliesByteDancecouldfetchCNY80bninad

6、srevsinCY19,representingc.14%ofChina’sonlineadsmarketshare,vs.c.8%inCY18.AdsIndustry:WetrimourChinaCY19onlineadsmarketforecasttoCNY590bn(+20%y/y),fromCNY627bn(+28%y/y),onmacrosoftness.China’srelativelyhighInternetadspenetration(c.66%inCY18,vs.c.50%intheUS)shouldalsoslowthegrowthmomentum.Byadscat

7、egory,wemodelfeedadsshareat23%inCY18,firsttimeexceedingsearch(20%),andfurtherincreaseto36%inCY21,whileweexpecteComadssharetostabilizeat33-34%.ByteDance’srapidgrowthcouldfurtherfacilitatemarketconsolidation,andweexpectthetop-