金属季报：尽管金价上涨，但仍提供了一种廉价的后周期对冲

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1、MetalsQuarterlyDespitetherally,goldstilloffersacheaplate-cyclehedge.Wetarget$1,460/oz.·Datatrackingsuggeststheslowdownintheglobaleconomyextendedinto2Q19.TheMayglobalmanufacturingPMIreleasedthisweekshowedtheindexfalling0.6-pointsto49.8,markingthe16thconsecutivemonthofanuninterruptedslideinglobalmanu

2、facturinganddippingintocontractionaryterritory.·Basemetalsentered2Qtradingatan18%premiumvsunderlyingPMIandwerepricinginareboundratherthanslumpinglobalmanufacturing.Evenafterlosing9%overthepasttwomonths,thecomplexisstillpricingaslightlymorethanonepointriseinJPM’sglobalmanufacturingPMIto51.2.Inotherw

3、ords,itistradingatabouta13%premium.·BasemetalsvaluationsarenolongerasstretchedastheywereinFebruaryandMarch,whenwefirstturnedneutralandthenbearishonthespace.Thepricedgrowthhurdlealsodoesnotappearashighrelativetowhatcouldbedeliveredinthenear-termgiventhelikelypolicyresponsesfromChinaandtheUS,leavingu

4、swithanoverallconstructiveshort-termbiasin3Qrelativetospotlevels.·Weopttomaintainournegative4Q19outlookforbasemetalsthough,giventheageofthecycle.Wekeepasharpend-2019selloffinourbasecaseacrossindustrialmetals,althoughwehavetoadmitthatourforecastedpricelevelsdon’tlookparticularlybearishvscurrentspotl

5、evels.·Withtheunfavorable2Qgoldcatalystslargelybehindus,wemaintainourbullishoutlookongoldover2H19andinto2020giventhemetal’suniquelate-cyclecharacteristics.·Ourreasoninghasn’tchanged.Wecertainlyseescopeforgoldtooutperforminabusinesscyclethathasbecomethelongestonrecord.·Intermsofvaluations,theextreme

6、slideinyieldshasleftgoldspotvaluationsfairlyattractiveforinvestorslookingforarecessionhedge:ourfairvaluemodelshowsthatcurrentspotgoldpricesareabout$25/oztoocheapvs.real10-yearTreasuryyields.·Ourbearishbiasfor2Q19workedwell,andwiththeexceptionofzinc,allotherbaseandpreciousmetalsperformedinlinewithou

7、rexpectations,resultinginonlyslightmark-to-marketadjustments.Aluminumaside,wemakeonlycosmeticchangestoour3Qpriceforecasts,whichleavesusquiteconstructivethebasemetalssectorforthequarterrelativetospotprices.W