亚太地区-金融业-台湾金融业：反向交易—优先选择保险公司，而不是银行

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1、10June2019AsiaPacific/TaiwanEquityResearchDiversifiedFinancialsResearchAnalystsChungHsu,CFA886227156362chung.hsu@credit-suisse.comChienPoHuang886227156342chien-po.huang@credit-suisse.comTaiwanFinancialSectorSECTORREVIEWReversethetrade:PreferinsurersoverbanksFig

2、ure1:QFIIportfolioweightingforinsurersisathistoricaltroughInsuranceAverage+1std-1std+2std-2std8%6%4%2%Aug-03Mar-04Oct-04May-05Dec-05Jul-06Feb-07Sep-07Apr-08Nov-08Jun-09Jan-10Aug-10Mar-11Oct-11May-12Dec-12Jul-13Feb-14Sep-14Apr-15Nov-15Jun-16Jan-17Aug-17Mar-18Oct-

3、18May-190%Source:TEJ,CreditSuisseestimates■Shiftingpreferencetoinsurers.WearemakingacontrariancalltorotateoutofTaiwanbanksandintoinsurers,whicheffectivelyreversesournegativecallonTWinsurers.Webelieveafterinsurers’26%and16%underperformancevsbanksandTaiexinthepast

4、eightmonths,muchoftheconcernshouldbeintheprice.Thisviewisreinforcedbythefactthatthereisnowaconsensusbearishviewoninsurersvssomepushbacktoourpreviousdowngrade.Assuch,weseemuchbetterrisk-rewardprofileforinsurersoverbanks.Wekeepourneutralstanceonnon-bank/non-insure

5、rsfollowingourprofit-takingcallsonChailease/Yuanta.■Fourreasonssupportingourcall.Fourreasonsleadustomakethecall:(1)aftertheUS$2bn+selling,theQFIIportfolioweightingininsurersisatahistoricaltroughalreadycorrespondingtothepreviousfinancialcrisislevel.Conversely,the

6、bankweightingisclosetoitshistoricalpeakandcorrespondstothemuchhighercoreprofitbackin2004-05thatisunlikelytobeattained;(2)consensusnegativerevisionsmaypauseforinsurersafterthe16%cutsinceOctober2018whilebanks’slightupgrademayalsoend;(3)insurers’correlationtotheUSb

7、ondyieldiscoincidentalandispricingfor2.2%US10Ybondyieldwhereasbankvaluationsdonotseemtopriceforapossibleratecut;and(4)capitalpressureforinsurersiswellflaggedandthedilutionmayendupbeinglessthanexpectedwiththeregulatorybackdroptofavourlargeplayers.■Ratingchangesan

8、dstockcalls.WedowngradeESun,MegaandHuaNantoUNDERPERFORM(allfromNeutral)whileweupgradeCathayandFubontoOUTPERFORM(bothfromNeutral).WeretainourOutperformratingonCTBCandC