欢迎来到天天文库
浏览记录
ID:39251279
大小:998.37 KB
页数:33页
时间:2019-06-28
《亚太地区-金融业-台湾金融业:反向交易—优先选择保险公司,而不是银行》由会员上传分享,免费在线阅读,更多相关内容在行业资料-天天文库。
1、10June2019AsiaPacific/TaiwanEquityResearchDiversifiedFinancialsResearchAnalystsChungHsu,CFA886227156362chung.hsu@credit-suisse.comChienPoHuang886227156342chien-po.huang@credit-suisse.comTaiwanFinancialSectorSECTORREVIEWReversethetrade:PreferinsurersoverbanksFig
2、ure1:QFIIportfolioweightingforinsurersisathistoricaltroughInsuranceAverage+1std-1std+2std-2std8%6%4%2%Aug-03Mar-04Oct-04May-05Dec-05Jul-06Feb-07Sep-07Apr-08Nov-08Jun-09Jan-10Aug-10Mar-11Oct-11May-12Dec-12Jul-13Feb-14Sep-14Apr-15Nov-15Jun-16Jan-17Aug-17Mar-18Oct-
3、18May-190%Source:TEJ,CreditSuisseestimates■Shiftingpreferencetoinsurers.WearemakingacontrariancalltorotateoutofTaiwanbanksandintoinsurers,whicheffectivelyreversesournegativecallonTWinsurers.Webelieveafterinsurers’26%and16%underperformancevsbanksandTaiexinthepast
4、eightmonths,muchoftheconcernshouldbeintheprice.Thisviewisreinforcedbythefactthatthereisnowaconsensusbearishviewoninsurersvssomepushbacktoourpreviousdowngrade.Assuch,weseemuchbetterrisk-rewardprofileforinsurersoverbanks.Wekeepourneutralstanceonnon-bank/non-insure
5、rsfollowingourprofit-takingcallsonChailease/Yuanta.■Fourreasonssupportingourcall.Fourreasonsleadustomakethecall:(1)aftertheUS$2bn+selling,theQFIIportfolioweightingininsurersisatahistoricaltroughalreadycorrespondingtothepreviousfinancialcrisislevel.Conversely,the
6、bankweightingisclosetoitshistoricalpeakandcorrespondstothemuchhighercoreprofitbackin2004-05thatisunlikelytobeattained;(2)consensusnegativerevisionsmaypauseforinsurersafterthe16%cutsinceOctober2018whilebanks’slightupgrademayalsoend;(3)insurers’correlationtotheUSb
7、ondyieldiscoincidentalandispricingfor2.2%US10Ybondyieldwhereasbankvaluationsdonotseemtopriceforapossibleratecut;and(4)capitalpressureforinsurersiswellflaggedandthedilutionmayendupbeinglessthanexpectedwiththeregulatorybackdroptofavourlargeplayers.■Ratingchangesan
8、dstockcalls.WedowngradeESun,MegaandHuaNantoUNDERPERFORM(allfromNeutral)whileweupgradeCathayandFubontoOUTPERFORM(bothfromNeutral).WeretainourOutperformratingonCTBCandC
此文档下载收益归作者所有