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1、TheComingGenerationalStormWhatYouNeedtoKnowaboutAmerica’sEconomicFutureLaurenceJ.KotlikoffandScottBurnsTheMITPressCambridge,MassachusettsLondon,EnglandFirstMITPresspaperbackedition,2005©2004MassachusettsInstituteofTechnologyAllrightsreserved.Nopartofthisbookmaybereproducedinany
2、formbyanyelectronicormechanicalmeans(includingphotocopying,recording,orinforma-tionstorageandretrieval)withoutpermissioninwritingfromthepublisher.ThisbookwassetinSabonbySNPBest-setTypesetterLtd.,HongKong.PrintedandboundintheUnitedStatesofAmerica.LibraryofCongressCataloging-in-P
3、ublicationDataKotlikoff,LaurenceJ.Thecominggenerationalstorm:whatyouneedtoknowaboutAmerica’seconomicfuture/LaurenceJ.KotlikoffandScottBurns.p.cm.Includesbibliographicalreferencesandindex.ISBN0-262-11286-8(hc.),0-262-61208-9(pb.)1.UnitedStates—Population—Economicaspects.2.Agedis
4、tribution(Demography)—Economicaspects—UnitedStates.3.Babyboomgeneration—UnitedStates.4.Aging—Economicaspects—UnitedStates.5.Aged—Governmentpolicy—UnitedStates.6.Retirementincome—UnitedStates—Planning.7.Populationforecasting—UnitedStates.8.Economicforecasting—UnitedStates.I.Titl
5、e:America’seconomicfuture.II.Burns,Scott.III.Title.HB3505.K682004332.024¢00973—dc22200306912110987654ContentsAcknowledgmentsixPrefacetothePaperbackEditionxiProloguexvii1FromStrollerstoWalkers12TruthIsWorseThanFiction413DrivinginLAwithaMapofNewYork734PopularTonics,SnakeOils,andO
6、therEasyFixes875GoingCritical1216ChangingCourse1437GrabYourLifeJacket1738SecuringYourFuture193Epilogue243Notes249Index263AcknowledgmentsNobookabouta$51trilliondebtgetswrittenwithoutitsownobliga-tions.ElizabethMurryatTheMITPresspersuadedustowritethisbook,providedbrilliantsuggest
7、ionsalongtheway,andablyguideditsproduction.HerMITPresscolleagueswereequallyimpressiveeditorialandproductionpartners.AlanAuerbach,JagadeeshGokhale,andKentSmettersplayedakeyroleovertheyearsincodevelopingthegenerationalaccounting,fiscalgap,andotheranalysesdiscussedinthisbook.We’rea
8、lsogratefultoBostonUniversity,theNationalBureauofEcono
