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1、INTRODUCTIONTOACTUARIALMODELINGJamesC.Hickman*1.MODELSexpressedassystemsofequationsandlogicalstate-mentsratherthandiminutivestructures,buttheyareBecauseofdifferencesinoureducationandexperi-approximationsnonetheless.ences,eachofusprobablyconjuresupasome
2、whatActuaries,alongwithotherscientists,facethesamedifferentconceptwhenmodelsarementioned.NotthreatasPygmalion.InGreekmythologythesculptoronlydowede®nemodelsdifferently,butalsoinprac-Pygmalionfellinlovewithhisstatue.Theeconome-ticeweusedifferentmethodsf
3、orconstructingmodelstricianHenriThielsaid,``Modelsaretobeusedbutandfortestingtheirdegreeofrealism.Despitetheseneverbelieved.''Therewillalwaysremainadistinc-differencesinde®nitionandapplications,astrongtionbetweenamodelandtherealityitrepresents.Acasecan
4、bemadethattheselection,estimation,andscientistwhobecomesemotionallyattachedtotheveri®cationofmodelsistheessenceofscience.Mod-modelwillmissdeeperinsightsintoreality.elsareessentialtoolsofthoughtandourprincipalve-Thedistinctionsbetweenrealityandmodelscan
5、behiclesforscienti®ccommunication.sharpenedbyintroducingadditionalexamples.Mod-Jewell(1980)wrotethemostcomprehensivere-elsareusedtorepresentsystems.Thebestexampleviewofmodelsininsurance.Inhisremarkableessay,isthesolarsystemandthelonghistoryofmodelsthat
6、Jewellstartswithade®nition:havebeenusedtorepresentit.Theastonishingsuc-cessofcelestialmechanicsinpredictingthebehaviorAmodelisasetofveri®ablemathematicalrelation-ofthesolarsystemhassetastandardofpredictabilityshipsorlogicalprocedureswhichisusedtorepre-
7、thatisimpossibleformodelsofmoreopensystemstosentobserved,measurablereal-worldphenomena,attain.Ourstandardsformodelsmightnotbesohightocommunicatealternativehypothesesabouttheifthecenterofthesolarsystemweretwinstarsrathercauseofthephenomena,andtopredictf
8、uturebe-thanasingledominantsun.haviorofthephenomenaforthepurposeofdecisionAttheotherextremeinsizeistheatomandthemaking.modelforit,underconstantrevision,constructedinphysics.Formuchofphysics,noonewouldconsiderUsingJewell'sde®nition,theco
