Diversifying Energy Sources of Northeast Asia东北亚能源多元化

《Diversifying Energy Sources of Northeast Asia东北亚能源多元化》由会员上传分享，免费在线阅读，更多相关内容在学术论文-天天文库。

1、IEEJ:March2004The8thInternationalConferenceon　NortheastAsianNaturalGasPipelineMarch8,2004,ShanghaiChinaDiversifyingEnergySourcesofNortheastAsiaRoleofGovernmentInitiativetowardSustainableDevelopmentKensukeKanekiyoManagingDirectorTheInstituteofEnergyEconomics,JapanIEEJ:March20041.ChinaandNorthe

2、astAsiaChina’sInternationalMarketDemand:2003Oil+10%WTIhitting$35/Bbl1)China’sImpactonNortheastAsiaCoal+14%Spotpricehitting$40/t1980s:IndustryEnhollowmentPower+15%(Seriouspowershortagein1990s:ExportofDeflationindustrializedregion)2000s:ResourceInflationSteel+20%Termpricefor2004soaring20%2)Inte

3、rdependencedevelopsinNortheastAsia*Increasingregionaltrade:ChinaisNo.1tradepartnerofJapan*EconomyandIndustrywillbefurtherconsolidatedwithChina’saccessiontoWTO:2880JapanesefirmsinvestedinChinaChina’sproblemistheregion’sproblemtobemutuallysolved.3)Amongothers,EnergySupplyisoneofthemostseriousch

4、allengesforsustainabledevelopmentofNortheastAsia.*HarmonywithEnvironmentshouldalsobeconsidered.１IEEJ:March20041.1WorldandAsianEnergy(TPE):20021.Asiashares30%oftheworldprimaryenergy(TPE)consumption.2.EnergyconsumptionofNortheastAsiaexceedsthatofEU15countries.→Securingstableenergysupplyisanimpo

5、rtantpolicyobjectiveWorldAsiaRussia:640MMtFSU（403MMt）(509MMt)（946MMt）10%Africa（2587MMt）MiddleEastJapan3%EastAsia13%17%L&SAmerica28%5%（383MMt）SouthAsiaKorea(206MMt)13%7%9.4billion3.0billionMiddleEastTOETOE4%NAmericaSEAsiaAustralasia（2715MMt）29%（381MMt）13%1%EuropeTaiwanChina+HKG20%3%34%(1018MMt

6、)USA:2293MMt（1883MMt）（89MMt）EU15:1469MMtJapan+Korea+China1733MMtSource:BPStatisticalReviewofWorldEnergyJune2003(Incl.Taiwan:1822MMt)2IEEJ:March20041.2EnergyOutlookofNortheastAsia1.Japan:Moderatelylevelingoff.2.Korea:Whilerecordedrapidincreaseofenergyconsumptionin1990s,growthwillbecomemoderate

7、.3.China:Continuesrapidincreasedrivenbyhigheconomicgrowth,and,withvastlandandbigpopulation,absoluteincreaseishuge.MMtOilEquivalent2020/20003000170%ChinaHigh2500630-2000/19901000MMtNEA：130%ChinaLow170～2000210%(68%)1500China132%(55%)1000(54%)13