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1、第十讲经营风险的管理ManagingOperating ExposuretoCurrencyRisk教学要点:TodefinitionofOperatingExposuretoCurrencyRiskTodiscusstheexposureofshareholders’equityThemethodsforManagingOperatingExposureDefinitionofOperatingexposureItreferstotheimpactexchangeratefluctuationscanhaveonafirm’sfuturecashflows．
2、即由于汇率的非预期变动引起企业未来营运现金流发生变化，从而使得企业的现值发生变动的可能性．Recallthatcorporatecashflowscanbeaffectedbyexchangeratemovementsinwaysnotdirectlyassociatedwithforeigntransactions.Cashflowsthatdonotrequireconversionofcurrenciesdonotreflecttransactionexposure.Yet,thesecashflowsmayalsobeinfluencedsignifi
3、cantlybyexchangeratemovements.TheimportanceofmanagingoperatingexposurecanbeseenfromthecaseofthebankruptcyofLakerAirways,andfromthethe1997-98Asiancrisis.HowFinancialMarketsAffectedLakerAirlinesAfirm’soperatingexposureisdeterminedbyitsuseofthedebtmarkets,aswellasbyforeignexchangemarke
4、tconditions.ConsiderthecaseofLakerAirway,aBritishairlinethatgeneratedmuchofitsrevenueinBritishpounds.Alargeproportionofitsexpenses,however,weredenominatedindollars.Asthedollarstrengthenedintheforeignexchangemarketin1981,Lakerneededlargeramountsinpoundstocoveritsdollar-denominatedexp
5、enses.InJanuary1981,Lakerborrowed$131millioninthefinancialmarketsfromagroupofU.S.andEuropeanbanks.Asthedollarcontinuedgostrengthen,thefirm’srevenuescouldnotadequatelycoveritsdollar-denominatedexpenses.Consequently,LakerAirwayswentbankrupt.Itmighthaveavoidedbankruptcyifithadreducedit
6、soperatingexposure,eitherbyreducingitsdollar-denominatedexpensesorbyincreasingitsdollar-denominatedrevenue.Overall,Laker’sperformancewasaffectedbyconditionsintheforeignexchangemarketalongwithitsdecisiontoborrowdollarsinthedebtmarkets.美国跨国公司的运营风险从事国际业务的跨国公司,承受汇率波动带来的运营风险的程度远远高于纯粹的国内企
7、业.例如,凯特彼勒公司的销售收入严重依赖出口.美元走强将增加该公司的外国进口商支付的价款,因此,凯特彼勒公司特别容易受到美元价值波动的影响.20世纪80年代前叶,美元出现了持续的强势,对其他主要货币的升值幅度超过40%,因其主要竞争对手---日本的小松公司的出口品以日元标价,在日元对美元贬值时,许多外国进口商放弃了凯特彼勒而选择了小松.20世纪80年代早期,墨西哥比索对美元贬值了40%,美元升值大幅降低了墨西哥顾客的购买力,结果,美国通用公司向墨西哥出售软件的业务受到惨重打打击,通用公司对墨西哥的销售大幅下降.OperatingExposureandtheCo
8、mpetitiveEnvironmen
