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1、TeamControlNumberForofficeuseonly52214ForofficeuseonlyT1________________F1________________T2________________F2________________T3________________ProblemChosenF3________________T4________________BF4________________2016aMCM/ICMSummarySheet(Yourteam'ssummaryshouldbeincludedasthefirstpageofyourele
2、ctronicsubmission.)Typeasummaryofyourresultsonthispage.Donotincludethenameofyourschool,advisor,orteammembersonthispage.summarySpacejunkhasreachedintoaunbelievablenumberthesedays,asaresultofhighspeeddevelopmentinaviationindustry.Thus,thespacedebrisbringmankindseriousobstaclesinspaceexploration
3、.Therefore,clearingthespacedebrishasbecomeatop-tasktobedealtwith.Tobeginwith,wehavestudiedthetime-spacedistributionpatternofdebris,wehavepredictedthevariationoffragmentswithtime.Afterknowingthedistributionfeatureoffragment’sdensityinaltitudeandlatitude,wehavelearnedroughlythatspacejunk’sdistr
4、ibutionmainlyrangesfrom800kmto1200kmoforbitaltitude,onwhichweareabletocalculatefluxtoillustratethecollisionofspacefragments.Nextstep,weanalysedthesuccessfullaunchingrate,andbycombiningtwoaspects,asasortofriskparameter,wecanassesstheriskofdifferentprojects.Weadoptthreenormalmethodsforclearings
5、pacedebrisbeforemakingacostanalysisandaprofitassessmentrespectively..Afterassessingprofitineachmethod,wedrawaconclusionthatLargesatellitesisthemostprofitableone.Thesetwoassessmentcanbelaterusedasanessentialindicatorforallprojects.Followingstepisthatweuseanalytichierarchyapproachtoassessthreep
6、rojects’profit,safety,efficiency,applicability,bywhichwelearnwhatweightcoefficientcanbewhenconsiderfourindicatorscomprehensivelyandtheadvantagesanddisadvantagesofeachproject’sindicator.Usingtheseweightcoefficientasaindicatorforfuzzycomprehensiveevaluationofweightcoefficient,wereachthreeprojec
7、ts’assessmentwithweightaverageprinciple.Theresultsfollows,Space-basedwaterjetsisfair,HighenergylasersisbetterandLargesatellitesbetweentwo.Sincefragmentswillchangewithtime,welaststepapplyMarkovmodeltorevise.Thencomesourconclusion,thatisclearin
