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1、TeamControlNumberForofficeuseonly52214ForofficeuseonlyT1________________F1________________T2________________F2________________T3________________ProblemChosenF3________________T4________________BF4________________2016aMCM/ICMSummarySheet(Yourteam'ssummaryshouldbeincludedasthefirst
2、pageofyourelectronicsubmission.)Typeasummaryofyourresultsonthispage.Donotincludethenameofyourschool,advisor,orteammembersonthispage.summarySpacejunkhasreachedintoaunbelievablenumberthesedays,asaresultofhighspeeddevelopmentinaviationindustry.Thus,thespacedebrisbringmankindseriouso
3、bstaclesinspaceexploration.Therefore,clearingthespacedebrishasbecomeatop-tasktobedealtwith.Tobeginwith,wehavestudiedthetime-spacedistributionpatternofdebris,wehavepredictedthevariationoffragmentswithtime.Afterknowingthedistributionfeatureoffragment’sdensityinaltitudeandlatitude,w
4、ehavelearnedroughlythatspacejunk’sdistributionmainlyrangesfrom800kmto1200kmoforbitaltitude,onwhichweareabletocalculatefluxtoillustratethecollisionofspacefragments.Nextstep,weanalysedthesuccessfullaunchingrate,andbycombiningtwoaspects,asasortofriskparameter,wecanassesstheriskofdif
5、ferentprojects.Weadoptthreenormalmethodsforclearingspacedebrisbeforemakingacostanalysisandaprofitassessmentrespectively..Afterassessingprofitineachmethod,wedrawaconclusionthatLargesatellitesisthemostprofitableone.Thesetwoassessmentcanbelaterusedasanessentialindicatorforallproject
6、s.Followingstepisthatweuseanalytichierarchyapproachtoassessthreeprojects’profit,safety,efficiency,applicability,bywhichwelearnwhatweightcoefficientcanbewhenconsiderfourindicatorscomprehensivelyandtheadvantagesanddisadvantagesofeachproject’sindicator.Usingtheseweightcoefficientasa
7、indicatorforfuzzycomprehensiveevaluationofweightcoefficient,wereachthreeprojects’assessmentwithweightaverageprinciple.Theresultsfollows,Space-basedwaterjetsisfair,HighenergylasersisbetterandLargesatellitesbetweentwo.Sincefragmentswillchangewithtime,welaststepapplyMarkovmodeltorev
8、ise.Thencomesourconclusion,thatisclearin
