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1、HumanCapitalandFertilityinChineseClans,1300-18501CarolH.ShiueJuly2008AbstractTheoriesofmoderneconomicgrowthassumetheincomeandtechnologicalshocksoftheindustrialrevolutiontriggeredthedecliningfertilityandincreasinghumancapitalofthedemographictransition.Toshedlightonthequestionofwhetherhouseholds
2、mightbeengagingininvestmentbehaviorinthepre-industrialperiod,thisththpaperprovidesdemographicevidenceonChinaoverthe14to19centuries,aperiodwellbeforetheonsetofitsdemographictransitionandindustrializationtoinvestigatetherelationshipsbetweenhumancapital,fertility,andsocialmobility.Socialmobility,
3、bothupwardanddownward,wassubstantialduringmuchofthisperiod.Fertilitywaslinkedtohousehold’sobjectivesforupwardsocialmobility,whichdependedonhighlevelinvestmentsinchildeducation.Ifirstshowfertilityvariedacrossthestatusofhouseholds.Second,Iexaminethesiblingsizeandfamilycharacteristicsofmenwhoobta
4、inedsuccessintheofficialstateadministeredexaminations.Inaninstrumentalvariablesestimationframework,Ifindthatconditionalonfather’sstatus,thereisanegativerelationshipbetweenfamilysizeandsons’education.Thefindingssuggesttheremaybeademographicroleformoderngrowththatpre-datestheindustrialrevolution
5、.1EconomicsDepartment,UniversityofColorado,Boulder,CO80309.Email:shiue@colorado.edu.IthankRaquelFernandez,MuratIgyun,WolfgangKeller,TedTelford,NathanSussman,andseminaraudiencesattheUniversityofMontreal,McGill,theNBERSIDAE,andtheNBERSIEFforcommentsanddiscussions.T.Telfordalsokindlyprovideddatau
6、sedinthispaper.GeneroussupportfromtheRussellSageFoundationandtheNationalInstituteofChildHealthandHumanDevelopmentisgratefullyacknowledged.1.IntroductionSustainedpercapitagrowthfirstemergedwheneconomiesexitedtheMalthusiantrapandtemporaryincomeincreasesapparentlyceasedtotranslateone-to-oneintohi
7、gherfertility.Thisdropinsociety-widefertility,asseeninademographictransition,isoften2assumedtobetriggeredbymoderneconomicdevelopment.Thetradeoffbetweeninvestmentsinchildrenandtheirnumberarecentraltomosteconomictheoriesoffertility.Inneoc
