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1、Technology’sFuture: BreakingdownBarriersRickRashidMicrosoftResearchhttp://www.research.microsoft.comTechnologyinthelate20thcenturyMoore’sLawComputersdoubleinpowerevery18monthsPrice/performance1,000,000Xboostinlast20years1,000,000Xmoreinthenext20yearsMoore’sLawtrueforlast35yearsLikelytocontinueforat
2、least35moreyearsExponentialchangemeans…ThefuturerapidlywashesawaythepastExponentialchangemeans...Morecomputingwilltakeplaceinthenext10yearsthanintheprevioushistoryofmankindExponentialchangemeans...Everythinguptonowdoesn’tcount…andyouain’tseennothingyetEvenmorerapidchangeingraphics,storageandnetwork
3、ingtechnologieswillshapethenexttenyearsTechnologybuildingmomentumGraphicsFactorof100improvementover3yearsTechnologybuildingmomentumStorageFactorof7improvementin2yearsTechnologybuildingmomentumNetworkbandwidthFactorof64improvementin3yearsFactorof2every6monthsNewTechnologiesontheHorizonNewTechnologie
4、s(e.g.DaltonGroup,Univ.ofWash.)NanoscalematerialsandprocessingSingleWallCarbonNanotubeActuatorsCondensedMatterTheoryMany-body,long-range,spatial-anisotropicinteractionsPolymericElectro-OpticModulatorMaterialsHighFrequencyModulators;VLSIIntegration;<1voltSensors&detectors,EOsignaltransducers,Optical
5、switches,Spatiallightmodulators,Oscillators,Phasedarrayradar,A/Dconverters,Opticalgyroscopes,AmplifiersNewopportunities100GHzlocalareanetworks1THzwideareanetworkElectro-opticbackplanesandinterconnectsTechnologyin21stcentury: BreakingdownbarriersThe“reality”barrierGraphics,vision,signalprocessingBar
6、riersbetweenpeopleCollaborationandcommunicationstoolsBarriersbetweenpeopleandcomputersUI,language,speech,visionBarriersbetweenpeopleandinformationDatabases,datamining,scalablecomputingBarriersbetweencomputersHighspeednetworkingBarriersbetweenwork,car,home,etc.Adaptivesystems,wirelesscomputingBreaki
7、ngthe”reality”barrierBy2001wewillbecloseto“ToyStory”stylegraphicsgeneratedinreal-timeonPCsWithin5-10yearsaPCgamewillbeonparwith“reality”TheVirtual“Me”Generatinglife-likespeechData-drivenstochasticspeechNatu
