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1、ContentsExecutivesummary4Companyinvestmentcases11BritishAmericanTobacco(Buy,PT£40)12JapanTobacco(Buy,PTJPY3,400)13PhilipMorrisInternational(Buy,PT$101)14ImperialBrands(Neutral,PT£24.00)15ITC(Buy,PTRs375)16GudangGaram(Buy,PTRp95,000)17HMSampoerna(Buy,PTRp4,500)18Altria(Neutral,PT$52)19KT&G(Neutral,
2、PTKRW105,000)20BATMalaysia(Neutral,PTRM38.00)21Buildingaglobaltobaccomodel22Globaltobaccodrivers24Volumes–recorddeclines24Revenue–strugglingtooffsetdeclines27Tobaccoindustryoutlook28Implicationsfororganicgrowth–themodelisfine31Volumeupside–takingsharefromillicit?35Whoisgainingshare?36PMI–iQOSis/wi
3、llbethesharedriver36BAT–consistentsharegrowth37IMB–stableoverallshare38JT–internationalbusinessgrowingshare39MarketswithUBScoverage40UnitedStates40Indonesia46Japan48SouthKorea51India53Malaysia55Globaloutlookdetail57Macrocontext58Prevalence64Taxes69Revenueandvolumes74Referencesheets80Combustiblemar
4、ketsummary81Globalvolumecountrydrivers82GlobalconstantFXrevenuegrowthcountrydrivers83GlobalUS$bnrevenuegrowthdrivers84ExecutivesummaryWeseeopportunityinthesectorHistorically,thekeydriveroftobaccocompanyvaluationshasbeentheindustryvolumeoutlook.Despitethefocusonnextgenerationproducts,mostconversati
5、onsontheindustrybeginwiththecorebusiness;unsurprisinggivencombustiblesaccountfor90%+ofprofitand>100%ofcashflow.Thisistrueforboththeinternationalandnationaltobaccocompanies.~10%NGPupsideoptimismv>20%aluationgap-26%Figure2:Thevaluationgapversusindustryvolumesrepresentsanopportunity,inourviewGlobalTo
6、baccoPErelative(%)10%Industryvolumes(%)0.00%5%-0.75%0%-1.50%-5%-2.25%-10%-3.00%-15%-3.75%-20%-4.50%-25%-5.25%-30%Jan-10Jul-10Jan-11Jul-11Jan-12Jul-12Jan-13Jul-13Jan-14Jul-14Jan-15Jul-15Jan-16Jul-16Jan-17Jul-17Jan-18-6.00%Jul-18Jan-19Jul-19ReltoMSCIWorldStaplesVolumes(%,RHS)Volumes(%,RHS)Source:UBS
7、estimates,companydata.Thegapbetweenindustryvolumesandtobaccovaluationsrelativetostaplesisthewidestithasbeenin10years.Ourviewisthatthereisaperceptionthattheindustrymodelisbroken.Foratleastthenextthreeyears,wedisag
