美赛2月10 定稿0204

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1、Team#35659Page1of27ForofficeuseonlyT1________________T2________________T3________________T4________________TeamControlNumber35659ProblemChosenBForofficeuseonlyF1________________F2________________F3________________F4________________2015MathematicalContestinModeling(MCM/ICM)SummarySheet(Atta

2、chacopyofthispagetoyoursolutionpaper.)Aircrashhappensoccasionally.HowtodetermineanoptimalSAR(SaveandRescue)areaandconductamosteffectiveSARwithlimitedresourcesarethecriticalpointsinthispaper.InModelone,we,accordingtothecrew’squality,planepropertyandtheenvironmentofthetime,firstlydevelopamod

3、elofTwo-stageFuzzyMulti-factorialEvaluationstodeterminetheintervalandthedistanceLbetweenlost-contactpositionandcrashposition.Basedontheforceanalysisofhydromechanics,adynamicalmodelisdevelopedtogetthedistanceLofdifferenttypesofplanes.Then,weconsiderthedebrisareinatwo-dimensionalGaussiondist

4、ribution,andwedividethesearchregionintoseveralareasandgettheprobabilitydistributionofthewholeregionandeacharea.ModeltwoisusedtogetadynamicprobabilitydistributiononthebasisofBayesmethod.Oursearchalwaysgivesaprioritytothemaximumprobabilityarea,andaftersearchingthisarea,theprobabilityofeveryo

5、therareawouldchange.BasedontheresultofModelone,wecangettheprobabilitydistributionafterchange.Modelthreedescribesthedynamicdriftprocessofthedebris.Wesimplifythecomplexdriftprocessasamovementonlyinfluencedbycurrentandwind,andconstructtheproperObjectivefunction.ThentheMonteCarlomethodisusedto

6、simulatethedriftprocessanddeterminethepositionandareaofdebrisdistributionafterdrifting.Modelfourisestablishedtofindtheoptimalallocationofairforces.WeproposetwoaspectsoftheSAR.Oneisshort-termsearchandtheotherislong-termsearch.Theshort-termModelhastheonlygoal:Savethetime.It’sobviousthatdiffe

7、rentelectronicsandsensorsintheplanewillaffectitssearchradiusandlargestlifetime.Andalsotheinitialdistancesfrombasetosearchareaaredifferent.Inconsiderationofallthesefactors,wedevelopanoptimalall-area-coveredallocationmodel.Thenwesolvethemodelwiththeexhaustivemet