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1、0CHAPTER2APPROACHESTOVALUATIONAnalystsuseawiderangeofmodelstovalueassetsinpractice,rangingfromthesimpletothesophisticated.Thesemodelsoftenmakeverydifferentassumptionsaboutpricing,buttheydosharesomecommoncharacteristicsandcanbeclassifiedinbroaderterms.Thereareseveraladvantagestosuchaclassifi
2、cation--itmakesiteasiertounderstandwhereindividualmodelsfitintothebigpicture,whytheyprovidedifferentresultsandwhentheyhavefundamentalerrorsinlogic.Ingeneralterms,therearethreeapproachestovaluation.Thefirst,discountedcashflowvaluation,relatesthevalueofanassettothepresentvalueofexpectedfuture
3、cashflowsonthatasset.Thesecond,relativevaluation,estimatesthevalueofanassetbylookingatthepricingof'comparable'assetsrelativetoacommonvariablesuchasearnings,cashflows,bookvalueorsales.Thethird,contingentclaimvaluation,usesoptionpricingmodelstomeasurethevalueofassetsthatshareoptioncharacteris
4、tics.Someoftheseassetsaretradedfinancialassetslikewarrants,andsomeoftheseoptionsarenottradedandarebasedonrealassets–projects,patentsandoilreservesareexamples.Thelatterareoftencalledrealoptions.Therecanbesignificantdifferencesinoutcomes,dependinguponwhichapproachisused.Oneoftheobjectivesinth
5、isbookistoexplainthereasonsforsuchdifferencesinvalueacrossdifferentmodelsandtohelpinchoosingtherightmodeltouseforaspecifictask.DiscountedCashflowValuationWhilediscountedcashflowvaluationisoneofthethreewaysofapproachingvaluationandmostvaluationsdoneintherealworldarerelativevaluations,wewilla
6、rguethatitisthefoundationonwhichallothervaluationapproachesarebuilt.Todorelativevaluationcorrectly,weneedtounderstandthefundamentalsofdiscountedcashflowvaluation.Toapplyoptionpricingmodelstovalueassets,weoftenhavetobeginwithadiscountedcashflowvaluation.Thisiswhysomuchofthisbookfocusesondisc
7、ountedcashflowvaluation.Anyonewhounderstandsitsfundamentalswillbeabletoanalyzeandusetheotherapproaches.Inthissection,wewillconsiderthebasisofthisapproach,1aphilosophicalrationalefordiscountedcashflowvaluationandanexaminationofthedifferentsub-approachesto
