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1、MeasuringtheImplicationsofSalesandConsumerStockpilingBehavior1IgalHendelUniversityofWisconsin,MadisonandNBERandAvivNevoUniversityofCalifornia,BerkeleyandNBERJuly2002ABSTRACTTemporarypricereductions(sales)arecommonformanygoodsandnaturallyresultinlargeincreaseinthequantitysold.Inpr
2、eviousworkwefoundthatthedatasupportthehypothesisthattheseincreasesare,atleastpartly,duetodynamicconsumerbehavior:atlowpricesconsumersstockpileforfutureconsumption.Inthispaperwequantifythemagnitudeoftheeffectandderivethequantitativeeconomicimplications.Weconstructandstructurallyes
3、timateadynamicmodelofconsumerchoiceusingtwoyearsofscannerdataonthepurchasingbehaviorofapanelofhouseholds.Theresultssuggestthatstaticdemandestimates,whichneglectdynamics,mayoverestimateownpriceelasticitiesbyupto50-80percent.1WewishtothankDavidBellforthedataandMichaelKeane,ArielPak
4、es,JohnRustandseminarparticipantsinseveralworkshopsforcommentsandsuggestionsonearlierversionsofthiswork.ThesecondauthorwishestothanktheCenterfortheStudyofIndustrialOrganizationatNorthwesternUniversityforhospitalityandsupport,andgratefullyacknowledgessupportfromtheNSF(SES-0093967)
5、.Commentsareverywelcomeandshouldbedirectedtoeitherigal@ssc.wisc.eduornevo@econ.berkeley.edu.11.IntroductionManynon-durableconsumerproductsexhibitoccasionalshort-livedpricereductions,sales.Inapreviouspaper(HendelandNevo,2002)wedocumentedpurchasingpatternsinthepresenceofsales,atthe
6、householdandthestorelevel.Wearguedthatthesepurchasingpatternsaredue,atleastpartly,tostockpiling.Whenpricesgodownconsumersbuyforfutureconsumption.Thisbehaviorhasimplicationsfortheinterpretationofdemandestimatesofstorableproducts.Inthispaper,wepresentadynamicmodelofhouseholdbehavio
7、r.Ourmodelcapturesthemainfeaturesfacedbythehousehold:variationinpricesovertime,whichcreateincentivestostore,severalcloselyrelatedbrands,non-linearpricingandpromotionalactivitieslikeadvertisinganddisplay.Ourgoalistostructurallyestimatethemodelinordertostudytheeconomicimplicationso
8、fstockpilingbehavior.Stockpilinghassever