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1、saje_1242152..169SouthAfricanJournalofEconomicsVol.78:2June2010EXPLAININGTHEGROWTHOFGOVERNMENTSPENDINGINSOUTHAFRICAjamesalm*andabelembayeAbstractWhatdeterminesgovernmentspendinginSouthAfrica?ThepaperestimatesthedeterminantsofrealpercapitagovernmentspendingintheRepublicofSouthAfricausingannualdatafor
2、theperiod1960-2007,atumultuousperiodduringwhichSouthAfricaexperiencedavarietyofinternallyimposedchanges(e.g.theabolitionofapartheid,changesinpoliticalinstitutions)andexternallygeneratedshocks(e.g.war,oilshocks).Usingmultivariatecointegrationtechniques,wefindthatpercapitagovernmentspending,percapitain
3、come,thetaxshareandthewageratearecointegrated,aresultthatsupportsthenotionthatgovernmentspendingisassociatednotonlywithpercapitaincomeandthetruecostofgovernmentserviceprovisionasgivenbythewageratebutalsowiththefiscalillusioncausedbybudgetdeficits.Wealsofindevidencethatpercapitagovernmentspendingwasposi
4、tivelyaffectedbyexternalshocks.Theseexternalshocksseemtoplayasignificantroleinexplainingthedynamicsofgovernmentspendinggrowth.JELClassification:C220,H500,H600Keywords:Medianvotertheorem,governmentspending,cointegration,unitroots,errorcorrectionmethod1.INTRODUCTIONIn1960realpercapitagovernmentspendingi
5、ntheRepublicofSouthAfricawasR1,703atconstant2000prices.By2007realpercapitaspendinghadmorethantripledtoR7,959.Duringthesameperiodrealpercapitagrossdomesticproduct(GDP)increasedfromR15,938toR25,414atconstant2000prices,orbyonly60%.Whatcausedrealpercapitagovernmentspendingtoincreasemorethanproportionate
6、lytothatofincome?Indeed,whydidalmostallmeasuresofgovernmentspending,includingrealgovernmentspendingpercapitaandgovernmentspendingrelativetoGDP,increaseovertime?SeeFigs.1and2forthetrendsinthesetwodifferentmeasuresofgovernmentspendingandFig.3fortheevolutionofrealGDPpercapita.Understandingthereasonsfor
7、governmentspendinggrowthhasbeenacentralconcernofpubliceconomistsgoingbackatleastasfarasWagner(1893)andbeginninginmorerecenttimeswithDowns(1957).Anexcessivesizeofgovernmentisoftenallegedtobethecauseofm
