theeconomist

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1、TheAmericaneconomyProceedwithcautionAmerica’seconomylookssetforagoodyear.Butinvestorsshouldbewarethetreacherouspathbeyond2011THEAmericanstockmarketenters2011inajollymood.Inthepastfourmonthsithasleaptby20%,toheightslastenjoyedwhenLehmanBrotherswasagoingconcern

2、.Investorsarelikelytocheerasecondconsecutiveyearofdouble-digitreturns.Thispartlyreflectsgrowthelsewhere:AmericancompaniesmakeathirdoftheirprofitsoutsidetheUnitedStates.Butthemostrecentspurthasbeendrivenbyasharpchangeintheoutlookathome.AttheendofthesummerWallS

3、treetworriedthatgrowthwasgrindingtoahalt.TheFederalReservewasrunningoutofmonetaryammunition.TheincrementalcontributionofBarackObama’s$814billionstimulushadfadedandagridlockedCongressseemedincapableofsupplyingnewsupport.BigbusinesswasrattledbyEurope’ssovereign

4、-debtcrisis.WallStreet’sbearssniffeddeflation.Whathaschanged?InpartitissimplyacaseoftheunderlyingAmericaneconomyturningouttobestrongerthanpessimistsimagined:consumerspending,businessinvestmentandjobcreationarealluplately.Butpolicymakershavealsodonetheirbit.In

5、NovembertheFedbeganasecondroundof“quantitativeeasing”—buyingbondswithnewlycreatedmoneyinordertopushdownlong-terminterestratesandstimulatelending.AndinDecemberMrObamaandtheRepublicansagreedtoextendGeorgeBush’staxcutsuntiltheendof2012andtopumpafurther$300billio

6、nintotheeconomyin2011throughapayroll-taxcutandothermeasures.Thedealshouldspurgrowth;italsogotridofthe(untilthenveryreal)dangerofinadvertentfiscaltighteningtippingtheeconomybackintorecession.Thatisthemainreasonwhybondyieldshaverisenwithshareprices.Bolderinvest

7、orsarelesswillingtoacceptrock-bottomyieldsinreturnforsafety.ThisbipartisanshipwillbankruptusPutthesethingstogether,andtheAmericaneconomycouldgrowbynearly4%in2011:soWallStreetisrighttobecheeryonthatscore.Butsharepricesaremeanttobebasedonmorethanjustthenext12mo

8、nths’earnings,andthemediumtermisastreacherousasever;perhapsmoreso.Startbynotingthattherecoveryissubduedbyhistoricalstandards.Thisisnotbecauseofhighinterestratesorfrailbusinessconfidence,t