CARBON MITIGATION COSTS FOR THE COMMERCIAL SECTOR DISCRETE-CONTINUOUS CHOICE ANALYSIS OF MU

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1、June2005¢RFFDP05-13CarbonMitigationCostsfortheCommercialSectorDiscrete-ContinuousChoiceAnalysisofMultifuelEnergyDemandRichardG.NewellandWilliamA.Pizer1616PSt.NWDISCUSSIONPAPERWashington,DC20036202-328-5000www.rff.orgCARBONMITIGATIONCOSTSFORTHECOMMERCIALSECTOR:DISCRETE-CONT

2、INUOUSCHOICEANALYSISOFMULTIFUELENERGYDEMANDRichardG.NewellandWilliamA.PizerAbstractWeestimateacarbonmitigationcostcurvefortheU.S.commercialsectorbasedoneconometricestimationoftheresponsivenessoffueldemandandequipmentchoicestoenergypricechanges.Themodeleconometricallyestima

3、tesfueldemandconditionalonfuelchoice,whichischaracterizedbyamultinomiallogitmodel.Separateestimationofenduses(e.g.,heating,cooking)usingthe1995CommercialBuildingsEnergyConsumptionSurveyallowsforexceptionallydetailedestimationofpriceresponsivenessdisaggregatedbyenduseandfue

4、ltype.Wethenconstructaggregatelong-runelasticities,byfueltype,throughaseriesofsimulations;own-priceelasticitiesrangefrom–0.9fordistrictheatservicesto–2.9forfueloil.Thesimulationsformthebasisofamarginalcostcurveforcarbonmitigation,whichsuggeststhatapriceof$20pertonofcarbonw

5、ouldresultinan8%reductionincommercialcarbonemissions,andapriceof$100pertonwouldresultina28%reduction.KeyWords:commercialenergydemand,carbonpolicy,climatechange,discretechoiceJELClassificationNumbers:Q28,Q48,Q41,C35,C15©2005ResourcesfortheFuture.Allrightsreserved.Noportiono

6、fthispapermaybereproducedwithoutpermissionoftheauthors.Discussionpapersareresearchmaterialscirculatedbytheirauthorsforpurposesofinformationanddiscussion.Theyhavenotnecessarilyundergoneformalpeerreview.TableofContents1.Introduction...........................................

7、.....................................................................................11.1Commercialandresidentialenergydemandliterature...................................................22.Discrete-ContinuousChoiceModelofEnergyDemand........................................

8、...................32.1Modeloffuelchoiceandenergydemand..................................