全球经济分析（英文版）

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1、130742Smartbookoversize.qxd9/11/0611:22Page1GlobalEconomicsAnalystNovember/December2006中华证券学习网www.1000zq.com官方总站：圣才学习网ww.100xuexi.comGoldmanSachsEconomicResearchGlobalEconomicsAnalystThispublicationdiscussesourviewsonallregionsoftheworldeconomy.Italsocompilesdataforallthecountrieswecovergloballyfro

2、mtheeconomicsdepartmentatGoldmanSachs.Thispublicationhasbeencustomisedtomeetyourrequirements,andthecontenthasbeenespeciallyselectedforyou.Fromtheindexonthefollowingpage,youwillbeabletoseewhatcontenthasbeenselectedforyou.Showninthegreyisremainingcontentthatisavailablebutnotpresentinyourpersonalisedc

3、opy.Ifatanytimeyouwishtorevisethecontentyoureceive,pleaseemaileco-ldn-production@ln.email.gs.comwithanychanges.Wepublishthisreportsixtimesayear.ThenextissuewillbeavailableinJanuary.ThisproductisalsoavailableontheeconomicsportionoftheGoldmanSachsInstitutionalPortal.PleasecontactyourGoldmanSachssales

4、personforaPortallogin.YoucanviewourlatestforecastsonlineviaERWIN(EconomicResearchWorldIndicators),wheretheyarecontinuouslyupdated.Seehttps://portal.gs.com/gs/portal/research/econ/erwin.Pleaseemailusoneco-erwin@ln.email.gs.comwithanycommentstohelpusdevelopthispublicationfurther.JimO’NeillNovember20,

5、2006Sourceforalltables/chartsisGoldmanSachsGlobalEconomicResearchunlessotherwisestated.AllregionalaggregatesreflectGScoverage.中华证券学习网www.1000zq.comVolume4,Issue6官方总站：圣才学习网ww.100xuexi.comNovember/December2006GoldmanSachsEconomicResearchGlobalEconomicsAnalystWorldOutlookJapanTestingOur'Decoupling'Vie

6、wAcorethemeinourmacroviewisthatasUSgrowthnowpayingoff,yieldingstrongeremploymentandslows,theprospectofbetterdemandgrowthintherestconsumerspending.WehavechangedourECBcalltooftheworldwillpreventtheglobaleconomyfromshowECBratesrisingto3.75%inMarch-Aprilandtoslowingatmorethanagradualpace.OurworldGDP4.0

7、%bymid-2007.Previously,wehadexpectedamoreforecastsshowgrowthslowingfrom4.6%thisyeartoextendedpauseat3.5%,basedonourviewthatasizable3.8%in2007.EuroappreciationwouldinterrupttheECB'snormalisationpolicy.Theexp