船舶交通事故混沌预测研究

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1、武汉理工大学硕士学位论文船舶交通事故混沌预测研究姓名：华清申请学位级别：硕士专业：轮机工程指导教师：高岚20080401武汉理工大学硕士学位论文AbstactRecentlythevesseltl'a伍caccidentforecastingisquiteimportanttomaritimesupervision,managementandearlywarning．Thevesseltl'a伍caccidentisarandomeventinfluencedbymanykindsoffactors．Foronehand，inform

2、ationofenvironmentandshipsoperatorsareindefinite．Fortheother,people，theshipandenvironmentcontainmanykindsofprocesses、析tllmutualcouplinginfluences．Sovariousfactorswillvaryoncethetimeandthespacearechangedintheship’Stravel．Itscomplex，polytropic，unknowncharacteristicsconsti

3、tuteshipshighnonlinearityofvesseltra伍caccident．Undgrthemutualfunctionofmanyfactors，thevesseltrafficaccidentdisplaysitsevolvedcharacteristicswhichareextremelycomplexanddifficulttopredictexactly．Butalong、析mnon-lineartheory’Sdevelopment,especiallydevelopmentofchaotictheory

4、,itispossiblethatwecallconsidereachfactor’Sinfluenceseparatelytoforecastthevesseltrafficaccidents．Thispaperutilizesthechaostheorytopredictvesselt／B简Caccidents．Usingtheanalysismethodofotherdomainsforreferenceanddoingresearchonvesseltl'a伍caccidents’predictionfromchaotican

5、gleisakindofnewattempt．11托summaryofconcretecontentandcurrentresultsisasfollows：Chaoticandphase—spacereconstructiontheoriesareexpoundedatfirst，andthreemethodsofcomputingthephase-spacereconstructionparametersaleproposed．Thephase-spacereconstructionleadschaotictheoryintoti

6、meseriesanalysistorecoverchaoticattractsinhi曲dimensionspaceandtoexposetheregularityofchaoticsystem．Secondly,accidentchaostheoryisproposed．Thechaoscharacteristicsinvehicletrafficaccidentsareanalyzedbyaccidentchaostheoryandfaulttree，and树icaccidentchaosdynamicsmodelisestab

7、lished．Thenthechaosattractorsarepredictedbyphasespaceneighbor-equal-distancemethodtopredicttrafficaccidents，whichprovidesaneffectivetheorytopreventlrdfficaccidents．Thirdly,howtoselectphase—spacereconstructionparametersisthekeyproblemtotheforecastingprecisionandforecasti

8、ngscales．AfterfurtherresearchthispaperⅡ武汉理工大学硕士学位论文introducesthechaoticforcastingmodelbasedonphase-spacerecons