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ID:37344285
大小:5.93 MB
页数:123页
时间:2019-05-22
《上市公司财务危机预警模型研究》由会员上传分享,免费在线阅读,更多相关内容在学术论文-天天文库。
1、大连理工大学博士学位论文上市公司财务危机预警模型研究姓名:刘彦文申请学位级别:博士专业:技术经济与管理指导教师:栾庆伟;李延喜20090301上市公司财务危机预警模型研究ResearchontheFinancialCrisisEarlyWarningModelofListedCompaniesAbstractWhilethedog--eat--dogmarketeconomyispregnantwiththeopportunityfordevelopment,therearecountlessriskandcrisishidedinit.Astolistedc
2、ompany,thesituationthatitistitled谢th“ST,’plateandevenforcedtoquitlistingbecauseoffinancialcrisisgrowsmoreandmoreseriously.Itisnotonlythethreattoexistenceanddevelopmentofthecompanyfailingintothefinancialcrisis,butalsobringsenormouslosstoinvestorsandcreditors.Sotoestablishafmancialcri
3、sisearlywarningindexsystemwhichisdisrelatedandcoveredamountofinformation,andbuildupafmancialcrisisearlywarningmodel,hasbecometheimportantaspectofstabilifyingthedevelopmentofstockmarket,nationaleconomy,andsociety.Intheempiricalresearchpartofthispaper,wehaveseparatelyusedLogisticEarly
4、WarningModel,GeneticAlgorithmandNeuralNetworktosetupandtesttheearlywarningmodel.Therearefivepartsinthispaper.Firstly,backgroundofresearchoffinancialriskandresearchsignificanceisintroduced,andthestatueofresearchovertheworldisfurtherintroduced.Secondly,wehaveintroducedtheresearchtheor
5、yofbusinessfinancialcrisis,andsummarizedthedevelopmentofenterprises,meaningofcorporatefinancialcrisisandtheformationofenterprisefinancialcrisis.Thirdly,relatedtheoryoffinancialcrisisearly—warningisexpatiated,andqualitativeandquantitativemethodsoffmancialcrisisearly·warningarerespect
6、ivelyreviewed.Fourthly,weselectedthevariablesandsamplestodesigntheresearch,andextractedprincipalcomponentfactors.ThefifthpartbuildsupthefinancialcrisisearlywarningmodelsbyLogisticEarlyWamingModel,BPNeuralNetworkandGA-BPNeuralNetworkafterextractingprincipalcomponentfactors.Andtheempi
7、ricalresultsarecomparedtogetaconclusion.Atlast,wesummarizetheresearchconclusionandtheshortcomingsofourstudyandsuggestmentsforfurtherstudy.Themaincharacteristicandinnovationofthispaperlieintwoaspects.Firstly,theindexsystemismoreintegrateforincludingnon—financialindexes.Secondly,webui
8、ldupafinancialcrisi
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