中国食品饮料行业分析

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1、AsiaPacificEquityResearch12November2009Chinastaples'sky-highvaluationsTimetotakeprofit?•WhilemarginexpansionwasapowerfulearningsdriveroverthepastChinatwoyearsforChineseStaples,webelievethiswillnolongerbeaFood&FoodManufacturefactorgoingforwardandshould

2、leadtosharpdecelerationinearningsACVineetSharma,CFAgrowthforseveralcompanies.Ontheotherhand,forwardmultiples(852)2800-8523arenotmuchlowerthantheywereinpastbullmarkets.Wethereforevineet.k.sharma@jpmorgan.comsenseadisconnectbetweengrowthandvaluationsand

3、downgradedEbruSenerKurumluACtwokeynames:TsingtaotoUnderweightandCREtoNeutral.(852)2800-8521ebru.sener@jpmorgan.com•Wehavealsotriedtoseparatecyclicalgrowthfromlong-termsecularJasmineBaiACgrowthforthespace(Table4onpg5)andbelievethat3-yrearnings(852)2800

4、-8559CAGRformoststapleswillnotexceed15-20%.Wethereforefindthejasmine.d.bai@jpmorgan.comaverageP/Eof29xfor2009Eearningsexcessive,asitimpliesaPEGJ.P.MorganSecurities(AsiaPacific)Limitedof1.5x.Near-termde-ratingcatalystwillbe1Q/1H2010Eearnings,whichshoul

5、dshowsharpdecelerationover2009Egrowthrates,MSCIChinaIndexPerformanceparticularly1Hgrowth,whichwaslargelyaidedbycommoditydeflationthathassincereversed.7060•Wehavealsore-visitedourMarketCapthemeinthisnoteandbelieve50thatmarketcapsforkeyChineseStaples,su

6、chasTsingtao,Tingyiand40Henganseemhighcomparedtothesizeoftheiraddressablemarket.3020•KeyrisktoourcalliscontinuedliquidityflowintotheChinamarket,Nov-08Feb-09May-09Aug-09Nov-09MSCIChinaanditschasingofliquid,largeChinaConsumerplays.‘Beta’couldthereforeco

7、ntinuetooverwhelm‘Alpha’.NamesthatwearerelativelymorepositiveoninStaplesareMengniuandChinaYurun.Elsewhere,Source:BloombergwecontinuetolikeBelle,Lifestyle,NWDSandPortsDesign.Table1:ValuationTableEPSCompanyMktCapP/E(x)CAGRDivyieldEV/EBITDA(x)ROE(USDmn)F

8、Y08FY09EFY10E2008-10EFY08FY09EFY10EFY08FY09EFY10EFY08FY09EFY10ETsingtaoBrewery641160.333.329.143.9%0.8%1.5%1.7%24.317.315.111.5019.1220.03ChinaResources827235.730.125.318.9%1.5%1.8%2.0%13.411.910.77.478.319.39EnterpriseTingyi1277448.636.330.92