JP摩根农产品周报

《JP摩根农产品周报》由会员上传分享，免费在线阅读，更多相关内容在行业资料-天天文库。

1、GlobalCommoditiesResearch08November2012AgricultureWeeklyGlobalcornexportpace,USfeeddemand,andcashbasisfortheUScornmarketExhibit1:RemainingcornhectareslefttobeplantedbyArgentinefarmersasofNovember1,Commodities2012(Thousandhectares)Pierre-HenriDietz2,000(65)6882-2139pierre-henri.dietz@jpm

2、organ.com1,8001,600J.P.MorganSecurities(AsiaPacific)Limited1,400ElizabethVolynsky1,200(1-212)834-40211,000elizabeth.m.volynsky@jpmorgan.com800JPMorganChaseBankNA600400200-200720082009201020112012ESource:BolsadeCereales,J.P.MorganCommoditiesResearchContent&AnalysisPageArgentinecornplant

3、ingpacecontinuestoslowamidwetconditions:HeavyrainscontinuedinArgentinathroughouttheendofOctober—UpdateonSouthAmericanweatherandplantingprogress1currentweatherforecastspointtodryingnextweek,potentiallyfollowedbyadditionalwetpatterns.OurplantingprojectionssuggestthatfarmersWASDEpreview1ha

4、ve1.7millionhectareslefttoplant,significantlymorethaninpastCashmarketintheUSconfirmingtightnessinyearsatthistime(Exhibit1),assumingthatArgentinefarmerswillthe2012/13UScornbalance2-3harvest3.1millionhectares(leadingto23.6mmtofproduction).TheDespitecurrentlowexportcommitmentsforUSUSDAassu

5、mestheywillharvest3.8millionhectares(fora28.0mmtcorn,demandatdestinationshasnotyetdecreased3-5crop).Ifwetconditionsdonotsubside,ArgentinacouldharvestlessEconomicsofUSmeatmarkets:impactsoncornthan3.0millionhectaresofcorn.Soybeanplantingisalsoslightlyandsoybeanmealfeedingtrends5-8delayed,

6、butthereislessrisktothecropasplantingisjustbeginningandAppendix9-13soybeanscanbeplantedlater,allowingmoretimeforpotentialdrying.USDAexportsalesreportrecap14PlantingandgrowingconditionsforcornandsoybeansinBrazilareViewsonrisk15improving:Normaltoabove-normallevelsofrainfallhavefallenover

7、Disclosures17-18thepastweekinMatoGrosso,Bahia,Goias,andMinasGerais.RecentdatafromIMEAshowthattheplantingpaceinMatoGrosso,thelargestsoybean-producingstateinBrazil,was62.5%asofNovember1,aheadofaveragepace(46.8%).ExcessmoistureconcernsinsouthernBrazilandParaguayarealsolikelysubsid