野村证券-2011年全球外汇形势展望（英文版，164页）

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1、London

2、NewYork

3、Singapore

4、TokyoGlobalFXOutlook2011NomuraGlobalFXStrategyAglobalbalancingact7December2010Anyauthorsnamedonthisreportareresearchanalystsunlessotherwiseindicated.PleaseseeimportantanalystcertificationandImportantdisclosuresonpage143.©NomuraInternationalplcGlob

5、alFXOutlook2011NOMURAINTERNATIONALPLCContentsExecutiveSummaryandTradeRecommendationsOutlookArticlesMacroRiskOutlook-Apleasantplateau5Box-US-Chinaeventcalendar17Box-Whatareriskycurrencies?18Appendix-AdescriptionofNOLI20Appendix-InterplayofNOLIandotherriskyassets21G10-TopFX

6、tradesand2011FXForecast24USD-ThecaseforUSDconsolidationin201126EUR-Persistentriskpremiumneeded32JPY-Peakperformancestilltocome35JPY-Willyenstrengthself-correct?41AsiaFX-Capitalflows,growthebbs46Box-Nomura'sUSD/CNYfixingmodel76AsiaInterestRates-Historyrhymes78EEMEA-Picking

7、winnersinapostmodernpolicyworld101Box-TowardsEMU:Ananchorinthedepths117EEMEARates-What’spricedinfor2011?118LatinAmerica-Fightingtheinevitable122Box-Gemari:Bravenewworld133EMFXValuation-AG20,policy-centricworld134GlobalFXForecastsFXForecasts138ContactsContactsandcontributo

8、rslist139Nomura107December2010GlobalFXResearchGlobalFXOutlook2011ExecutiveSummaryandTradeRecommendationsExecutivesummaryandtraderecommendationsMacroRiskOutlook–ApleasantplateauWebelievetheoutlookforriskycurrenciesismildlypositivefor2011.Thisassessmentisbasedonaconsistenth

9、istoricalpatternofreturnsduringsimilarpointsinthecycle.Thechallengesare:1)thisviewisbuy-sideconsensusandwemustbealerttoovershootinginpriceandpositioning(andwehaveaclear‘value’focusinourrecommendationsbelow);2)asustainedshiftinFedview(somethingwedispute);3)thatthenotionofE

10、Meconomicoutperformancemaybetestedin2011(wethinkmarketswilllookbeyondanytemporarygrowthconvergence);4)EMeconomicoutperformance,buttingagainstcontinuedUSpoliticalpressures,mayexacerbatetensionsaroundglobalrebalancingingeneralandaroundCNYinparticular;5)EventsinEurope,mostcr

11、iticallySpain,threatentoupsetriskmarketsfurther.G10–ThecaseforconsolidationandvalueWeanticipate2