渣打银行EQUITY RESEARCH研究报告---新浪

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1、lEquityResearchlChina

2、Technology2March2011SINACorporationIN-LINE(fromOUTPERFORM)Pricetarget:US$75.00(fromUS$64.00)PRICE(asat01March11)BLOOMBERGREUTERSEPSEST.CHANGEUS$82.00SINAUSSINA.O2011E+7.0%2012E+9.2%--12MONTHRANGEMARKETCAPUS$32.74-94.17US$5,061mJef

3、freyTsang,CFAJeffrey.Tsang@sc.com+85239838523MonetisationisyettocomeSinareportedasetofresultson2Marchthatwereinlinewithourexpectations.Sina’sTwitter-likemini-blogcontinuestoseestrongtraction,withtotalregisteredusersnowhavingsurpassed100million,double

4、thatoffourmonthsago.However,managementemphasisedthatmonetisationofthemini-blogwillcurrentlybelimited,whileitfocusesonthegrowthoftheuserbaseandimprovingtheuserexperienceinstead.2011willbethe“investmentyear”forbothofSina’ssourcesoffuturegrowth–onlinevi

5、deoadvertisingandmini-blog.WhileweremainoptimisticwithSina’sabilitytoreapthebenefitsfromtheonlineadvertisingindustry’sseculargrowthstory,webelievethecurrentsharepricealreadyadequatelyreflectssuchexpectations.Asaresult,wedowngradeSinatoIN-LINE,fromOutp

6、erform,butraiseourpricetargettoUS$75(fromUS$64,set17November2010).Q42010resultsinlinewithexpectationsFig1:Non-GAAPP&LresultssummaryUSDmQ310AQ410EQ410ADifferenceAdvertisingrevenue81.082.682.5-0.2%Non-adrevenue22.622.622.60.1%Totalrevenue103.6105.2105.0-

7、0.1%Grossprofit60.461.660.2-3.9%Operatingincome26.927.925.5-8.7%Netprofit32.630.730.6-0.2%Source:Company,StandardCharteredResearchestimatesSinagrewitsadvertisingrevenuesby30%YoYtoUSD83m,helpedbyincreasingonlineadspendfromautomobile,FMCGandinternetplay

8、ers.Thebusinesswasalsohelpedbysurgingpopularityofonlinevideoadvertising,whichsawamorethandoublingofrevenuesinFY2010,albeitfromalowbaseinFY2009.Growthinrevenuesfrommobilevalueaddedservices(MVAS)continuestobelacklustreasChinaMobilehasyettoprovideclarity

9、afterimplementingaseriesofmeasuresinlate2009andearly2010thatadverselyaffectedtheMVASindustry.Grossmarginoftheadvertisingbusinesscontinueditsyear-on-yearimprovement,cominginat60.7%forthequarter,versus63.3%inQ32010and59.9%inQ42009.Howeve