石油价格对湖北经济的影响及对策研究

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1、武汉理工大学硕士学位论文石油价格对湖北经济的影响及对策研究姓名：曹伟申请学位级别：硕士专业：系统工程指导教师：熊伟20061201AbstractTheworldcrudeoilpricehasbiduptonewhighcontinuouslysince2004,Oilwillintensifytheimpactontheworldandoureconomy．TheHubeieconomyisinthemiddleofindustrializationpmgre辐，in．easingbytheratioo

2、f10％eachyear．Withthehi曲一speedincreaseofthedemandofcrudeoil，ourcountryismoreandmorereliantcrude胡．Alongwiththeimportvolumeofpetroleum．thefluctuationofOilpricewillintensifytheimpactonoureconomy．Butourcountryhasnotstillsctupthecompletesafedefensesystemofoil，th

3、ed∞peritrelieson，themoredangerousitface．Firstly,thisthesisdescribedpresentsituationofenergyproductionandconsumptioninHubeiprovince，andreviewedtheenemydevelopmentstrategyinlastfiveyears．ThenweanalyzedtherigoroussituationofpetroleumsupplythatHubeiprovincefac

4、es．Usingfactoranalysis，clusteringandotherstatisticsmethodtoinvestigatesecondaryenergyconsumptionofdifferentindustries．Sothatwecanfindouttheindustfieswhichreliesonoilmostly．Secondly,analysetheeffectsofpriceofpetroleumonre#onaleconomy．Byanalyzingthemechanism

5、ofinternationalpetroleumpriceandthedomesticoibpricingpolicy，analysedtheinfluenceofpriceofpetroleumonmacroeconomyandvariedindustry．thenegativeimpactofdrasticoilfluctuationisevident．especially胡refining,agriculture，carryingtradeandtheautomotiveindustry,etc．Ot

6、herwise，theHubeieconomywillkeepgrowinginthenearfuture．Usingthequantitativemethod，wefoundinfluencesmodelsofthepriceofpetroleum．Usingmodelstoanalysethemechanismandthestrengthenofoil·priceimpactonHubeieconomy．Basedonhistoricaldata．TARCHmodelofwnpriceisbuiltup

7、todemonstrateconditionalheteroskedasticityandleverageeffectinoilmarket．Lastly,haveputforwardthecountermeasuresandsuggestionstoHubeiprovince'soilsecurity．PointoutthatthegovernmentofHubeishouldsetupthecompletesafedefensesystemofoil．andencourageenterpriseseva

8、detheriskofoilpricewithfinancederives．HubeialsoneedtotakeanactivepartinconstructingstrategicoilreservebasesothatwecanmakeafirmfoundationforthelongtermsteadydevelopmentofHubeiprovince．ⅡKeywords：Oilprice，econom