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1、JournalofWaterResourcesResearch水资源研究,2015,4(4),330-338PublishedOnlineAugust2015inHans.http://www.hanspub.org/journal/jwrrhttp://dx.doi.org/10.12677/jwrr.2015.44040AnalysisofInflowFloodsoftheThreeGorgesReservoirYixuanZhong1,ShenglianGuo1,ZhangjunLiu1,HaijinGuo2,YanqingLi21StateKeyLaboratoryo
2、fWaterResourcesandHydropowerEngineeringScience,WuhanUniversity,WuhanHubei2BureauofHydrology,ChangjiangWaterResourcesCommission,WuhanHubeiEmail:zhongyx_92@163.comstththReceived:Jul.21,2015;accepted:Aug.5,2015;published:Aug.19,2015Copyright©2015byauthorsandHansPublishersInc.Thisworkislicensed
3、undertheCreativeCommonsAttributionInternationalLicense(CCBY).http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/AbstractTherunoffgenerationandconfluenceconditionsatintervenerbasinhavebeenchangedafterthecom-pletionoftheThreeGorgesReservoir(TGR).Sincethereservoirinflowhashigherpeakwithlargerfloodvolu
4、meintherisinglimbcomparedtothefloodsatdamsite,theoriginaldesignedfloodresultsatdamsitecannolongersatisfythecurrentrequirementofoperationandmanagementforTGR.Inthispaper,amultipleinputsandsingleoutputlinearsystemmodelwasbuilttocalculatethehistoricalreservoirin-flowseriesandthenlinearregressio
5、nswereusedtodeterminethequantitativerelationsoffloodpeaks,3d,7dand15dfloodvolumesbetweeninflowseriesandfloodseriesatdamsite.Subsequently,thesi-mulatedinflowseriescombinedwithhistoricalfloodswereobtainedandusedforinflowfrequencyanalysis.Comparingtheinflowfrequencyanalysisresultswiththeexisti
6、ngdesignfloodatdamsite,thefloodpeaksand3d,7dfloodvolumesareincreasedsignificantly,whilethechangeof15dfloodvolumeisnotevident.Itisshownthat100-yeardesignedinflowpeakdischarge,3d,7dand15dinflowvolumesare7.89%,5.49%,2.52%and0.31%largerthanthoseofdesignedfloodsatdamsite,respectively.Therefore,i
7、t’smorerationaltotakethedesignedinflowfloodsasscientificbasesforTGRreservoirop-erationandmanagement.KeywordsThreeGorgesReservoir,InflowFlood,FloodatDamSite,FrequencyAnalysis,SystemModel三峡水库入库洪水分析计算研究11122钟逸轩，郭生练，刘章君，郭海晋，李妍清作者简介：钟逸轩(1992-)，男，江西宜春人，硕士研究生，主
