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1、ThegreenbarriertofreetradeC.P.ChandrasekharJayatiGhoshAstheMarch31deadlineforcompletingthe"modalities"stageoftheproposednewroundofnegotiationsonglobalagriculturaltradenears,hopesofanagreementareincreasinglywaning.InthiseditionofMacroscan,C.P.ChandrasekharandJayatiGhoshexaminethefactors
2、andtheplayersconstrainingtherealisationofsuchanagreement.ATTHEENDofthelatestroundofmeetingsoftheagriculturalnegotiationscommitteeoftheWTO,theoptimismthatnegotiatorswouldmeettheMarch31deadlineforworkingoutnumericaltargets,formulasandother"modalities"throughwhichcountriescanframetheirlib
3、eralisationcommitmentsinanewfull-fledgedroundoftradenegotiationshasalmostdisappeared.Thattargetwasimportantfortworeasons.First,itisnowbecomingclear,thatevenmorethanwastrueduringtheUruguayRound,forginganagreementintheagriculturalareaisboundtoproveextremelydifficult.Progressintheagricult
4、uralnegotiationswaskeytopersuadingtheunconvincedthatanew`DohaRound'oftradenegotiationsisusefulandfeasible.Second,theDohadeclarationmadeagriculturalnegotiationsonepartofa`singleundertaking'tobecompletedbyJanuary1,2005.Thatis,inatake`all-or-nothing'scheme,countrieshadtoarriveat,andbeboun
5、dby,agreementsinallareasinwhichnegotiationsweretobeinitiatedinthenewround.Thismeansthatifagreementisnotworkedoutwithregardtoagriculture,therewouldbenochangeinthemultilateraltraderegimegoverningindustry,servicesorrelatedareasandnoprogressinnewareas,suchascompetitionpolicy,foreigninvestm
6、entandpublicprocurement,allofwhicharecrucialtotheeconomicagendaofthedevelopedcountries.Thefactorsmakingagriculturethestickingpointonthisoccasionarenumerous.AsinthelastRound,thereislittleagreementamongthedevelopedcountriesthemselvesontheappropriateshapeoftheglobalagriculturaltraderegime
7、.TherearesubstantialdifferencesintheagendaoftheUS,theEUandthedevelopedcountrieswithintheCairnsgroupofagriculturalexporters.Whentherichandthepowerfuldisagree,aglobalconsensusisnoteasytocomeby.Butthatisnotall.Evenifanagreementisstitchedupbetweentherichnations,throughmanoeuvressuchasthe
