风险可保性理论与巨灾风险的国家管理

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1、Y765652後旦大学博士学位论文学枝代码：10246学号：021015080风险可保性理论与巨灾风险的国家管理院系：经济学院专业：国际金融姓名：周志刚指导教师：胡庆康教授完成日期：2005年4月16Et采￡蹬毒．导师詹慧匆垒．鼍公布系统的目标应当是：让居民获得可以负担的住宅地震保险；减轻政府的财政负担；保证国民经济的安全。家庭、保险业、政府都应在系统中承担一定的风险；系统还应该充分利用国际再保险市场和资本市场进行风险转移和风险融资；某种程度的法定保险是必须的；系统的日常运作应当充分利用商业保险市场的现有渠道、设施和人员。[关键词j巨灾风险保险风险管理风险转移风险融资[中图分类号]F84Abs

2、tractCatastrophesareinfrequenteventsthatcausesevereloss，injuryorpropertydamagetoalargepopulationofexposures．Catastrophehasthecharacteristicsoflowprobability,highloss，beingdifficulttopredictandhighcorrelationamongexposures．Catastropheshavehugenegativeimpactsonacountry’semployment，debts，balance-ofpaym

3、entsandexchangerate，etc，andthenegativeimpactscanbeseenaslossintermsofGDPchange．Theimpactsofcatastrophetodifferentcountriesarenotthesame，becausethevulnerabilityofthedifferentcountriesaredifferent，thatis，thesizesoftheeconomies，theeconomicdiversificationsandthemanagementofthecatastrophicrisksarediffere

4、nt．Thereareplentyofmeasurestomanagethecatastrophicrisksonacountry’slevel．Thedevelopingcountriesusuallydependonthereallocationoffiscalbudgetsandtheinternationalaidsafterthehappeningsofthecatastrophes．Theseareexpostcatastrophicriskfinancing．Thedevelopedcountries，onthecontrary,managethecatastrophicrisk

5、sactively,usinginsurance，reinsuranceandcapitalmarketinstrumentstotransferandfinancethecatastrophicrisks，thatis，exanteriskfinancing．Becauseofthedifferenceofthemanagementofcatastrophicrisksbetweenthedevelopingandthedevelopedcountries，thefinancialandeconomicimpactsofcatastrophesarelargerindevelopingcou

6、ntriesthanindevelopedcountries．Theactivemanagementofcatastrophicrisksneedstheestablishmentofanexanteriskfinancingmechanism．Insuranceandreinsurancearethemostcommonmeasures．Commercialinsurancemarketcanonlydealwitllinsurablerisks．andtheinsurabilityofcatastrophicrisksislimitedbytheircharacteristics。Rein

7、suranceexpandsthescopeofinsurablerisks，butstillcannotsolvetheproblemsoflackofcapitaloftheinsurancemarket，theambiguityofcatastrophicrisks，theadverseselections，etc．Theexpansionofthedefinitionofinsurabil