索罗斯在大学的演讲(I)

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1、Transcript:GeneralTheoryofReflexivityThefollowingisatranscriptofalecturegivenbyGeorgeSorosatCentralEuropeanUniversityonOctober26,2009.Inthecourseofmylife,Ihavedevelopedaconceptualframeworkwhichhashelpedmebothtomakemoneyasahedgefundmanagerandtospendmoneyasap

2、olicyorientedphilanthropist.Buttheframeworkitselfisnotaboutmoney,itisabouttherelationshipbetweenthinkingandreality,asubjectthathasbeenextensivelystudiedbyphilosophersfromearlyon.IstarteddevelopingmyphilosophyasastudentattheLondonSchoolofEconomicsinthelate19

3、50s.ItookmyfinalexamsoneyearearlyandIhadayeartofillbeforeIwasqualifiedtoreceivemydegree.IcouldchoosemytutorandIchoseKarlPopper,theViennese-bornphilosopherwhosebookTheOpenSocietyandItsEnemieshadmadeaprofoundimpressiononme. InhisbooksPopperarguedthattheempiri

4、caltruthcannotbeknownwithabsolutecertainty.Evenscientificlawscan'tbeverifiedbeyondashadowofadoubt:theycanonlybefalsifiedbytesting.Onefailedtestisenoughtofalsify,butnoamountofconforminginstancesissufficienttoverify.Scientificlawsarehypotheticalincharacterand

5、theirtruthremainssubjecttotesting.Ideologieswhichclaimtobeinpossessionoftheultimatetrutharemakingafalseclaim;therefore,theycanbeimposedonsocietyonlybyforce.ThisappliestoCommunism,FascismandNationalSocialismalike.Alltheseideologiesleadtorepression.Popperprop

6、osedamoreattractiveformofsocialorganization:anopensocietyinwhichpeoplearefreetoholddivergentopinionsandtheruleoflawallowspeoplewithdifferentviewsandintereststolivetogetherinpeace.HavinglivedthroughbothNaziandCommunistoccupationhereinHungaryIfoundtheideaofan

7、opensocietyimmenselyattractive. WhileIwasreadingPopperIwasalsostudyingeconomictheoryandIwasstruckbythecontradictionbetweenPopper'semphasisonimperfectunderstandingandthetheoryofperfectcompetitionineconomicswhichpostulatedperfectknowledge.Thisledmetostartques

8、tioningtheassumptionsofeconomictheory. Thesewerethetwomajortheoreticalinspirationsofmyphilosophy.Itisalsodeeplyrootedinmypersonalhistory.TheformativeexperienceofmylifewastheGermanoccupationofHungaryin1