索罗斯的五个演讲

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1、索罗斯的五个演讲1.第一讲：人的不确定性原则Ishallexplaintheconceptsoffallibilityandreflexivityingeneralterms大致介绍易误论和相反射论的基本内容2.第二讲：将此理念运用于分析金融市场TomorrowIshallapplythemtothefinancialmarkets3.第三讲：运用于分析政治问题，也涉及开放社会的理念Andafterthattopolitics,thatalsobringintheconceptofopensociet

2、y4.第四讲：将探讨市场价值与道德价值的区别InthefourthlectureIshallexplorethedifferencebetweenmarketvaluesandmoralvalus5.第五讲：对眼下面临的历史时刻提出一些预测和处方InthefifthIgivesomepredictionsandprescriptionsforthepresentmomentinhistory。可以用两个相对简单的命题说明我的核心思想。Icanstatethecoreideaintworelativel

3、ysimplepropositions.一个是有思维能力的参与者的情况下，参与者对世界的看法永远是和曲解的。这是谬误难免论，即易误论。Oneisthatinsituationsthathavethinkingparticipants,theparticipants’viewoftheworldisalwayspartialanddistorted.Thatistheprincipleoffallibility.另一个是这些曲解了的观点可以影响参与者所处的情况因为错误的看法会导致错误的行为Theothe

4、risthatthesedistortedviewscaninfluencethesituationtowhichtheyrelatebecausefalseviewsleadtoinappropriateactions.这是想到影响的“相关反射原则”ThatistheprincipleofreflexivityGeneralTheoryofReflexivityInthecourseofmylife,Ihavedevelopedaconceptualframeworkwhichhashelpedme

5、bothtomakemoneyasahedgefundmanagerandtospendmoneyasapolicyorientedphilanthropist.Buttheframeworkitselfisnotaboutmoney,itisabouttherelationshipbetweenthinkingandreality,asubjectthathasbeenextensivelystudiedbyphilosophersfromearlyon.Istarteddevelopingmyph

6、ilosophyasastudentattheLondonSchoolofEconomicsinthelate1950s.ItookmyfinalexamsoneyearearlyandIhadayeartofillbeforeIwasqualifiedtoreceivemydegree.IcouldchoosemytutorandIchoseKarlPopper,theViennese-bornphilosopherwhosebookTheOpenSocietyandItsEnemieshadmad

7、eaprofoundimpressiononme.InhisbooksPopperarguedthattheempiricaltruthcannotbeknownwithabsolutecertainty.Evenscientificlawscan'tbeverifiedbeyondashadowofadoubt:theycanonlybefalsifiedbytesting.Onefailedtestisenoughtofalsify,butnoamountofconforminginstances

8、issufficienttoverify.Scientificlawsarehypotheticalincharacterandtheirtruthremainssubjecttotesting.Ideologieswhichclaimtobeinpossessionoftheultimatetrutharemakingafalseclaim;therefore,theycanbeimposedonsocietyonlybyforce.Thisappli