大型集装箱港口建设的风险分析研究

《大型集装箱港口建设的风险分析研究》由会员上传分享，免费在线阅读，更多相关内容在学术论文-天天文库。

1、天津大学博士学位论文大型集装箱港口建设的风险分析研究姓名：杨波申请学位级别：博士专业：结构工程指导教师：余建星20060901本研究在基础理论分析研究的基础上，以天津港东疆港区开发作为范例，分别对其运量预测，融资、建设风险进行了系统的分析和探讨，从而为港口建设决策提供了重要的定量分析参考。关键词：集装箱港口；中长期预测；逻辑斯蒂模型；风险分析；IAHP法；熵信息法；变权公式AbstractThispapersummariesmethodsforcontainerhandlingcapacitypredic

2、tionandthengivessuggestionsonmethodselectionandrelatedparameters’settingaccordingtothecharactersofmiddle／longtermprediction．Then，thereliabilityofeachmethodisassessedbasedonitsmechanismtoproducethesynthesisweightmatrix．Atlast，thispaperusestheTianjinPortasa

3、casetoconductmiddle／longtermcontainerhandlingcapacityprediction．Multi-factordynamicproductcoefficientsmethodisthemostmatureandwidely-usedoneinallavailablecontainerhandlingcapacitypredictionmodels．Afterpredictingforeigntradevalue，predictedcontainerhandling

4、capacitycanbegotbyusingproductcoefficients．However,theveryfirststep，settingfutureforeignexchanginggrowthrate，isastepwhichusuallylackssolidlogicalbase，leadingtolowprecisioninthemiddle／longtermprediction．Thispaperadoptslogisticmodeltomakemiddle／longtermGDP,

5、thensolvesthislogic-lackingproblembyusingregressionmodelbetweeneconomicvolumeandforeigntradevalue．Themiddle／longtermcontainerhandlingcapacityfortheTianjinPortisconductedasacase．Theresultandrationalesshowthatlogisticmodelisamoreappropriateandadvancedmethod

6、tomodifythemulti-factordynamicproductcoefficientsandimprovemiddle／longtermprediction’Sprecision．Riskmanagementisanewsubject，whichwasdevelopedinthepasttwentyyears，andstartstobecomprehensivelyappliedtoallkindsofprojectsrecently．Inthispaper,thoroughstudyonfi

7、nancingandconstructionriskofportdevelopmentwasconducted．Purposeofthisstudywasto’findoutthemoreeffectiveriskanalysismethodforcontainerportdevelopment。Firstlythecommonprocessofriskmanagementwasconciselyanalyzed；thenbasedontheinvestors’differentriskpreferenc

8、e，amath’Smodelwassetuptomeasurerisk；finallybyprovidinganexample，variousmaterialrisksincludedinthisexamplewasstudieduponandthenumericalvalueofthemwascalculated，andthensomemeasurestoavoidriskswasofferedinvirtueofthenu