高盛对中国房地产开发商深度研究

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1、February22,2010China:RealEstateDevelopersFebruary22,2010China:RealEstateDevelopersReshufflingpicksonnewrisk/rewardanalysisamidtighteningLoweringtargetpricestoreflectnear-termtighteningriskOURBASE,BEAR,ANDWORST-CASEVALUATIONSWelowerour12-monthtargetprice

2、sacrossourcoveragegroupby0%-32%afterincreasingourtargetpricediscountstoNAVby0-20percentageBase-caseBear-caseWorst-casepricetargetsvaluationvaluationpoints(towithinarangeof10%-40%fromourprior0%-30%range).This18-FebRatingLCY12-mthUpside/Upside/Upside/TPdo

3、wnsidedownsidedownsidereflectsourconcernofgreateruncertaintyarisingfromrecentgovernmentFantasiaB*HK$2.6359%2.1027%1.661%Vanke(B)BHK$11.2742%9.7423%6.87-13%GemdaleBRmb17.4541%10.33-16%7.03-43%macrotightening.Althoughwebelieveitspurposeistoslow,ratherthan

4、PowerlongBHK$2.9639%2.8634%2.02-6%R&FB*HK$15.5438%9.89-12%6.21-45%reverse,China’seconomicrecovery,webelievethetighteningcouldaffectShimaoBHK$16.3535%9.78-19%6.38-47%Vanke(A)BRmb12.4733%8.38-11%5.91-37%thepaceofdeveloperssellingpropertiesorrealizingtheir

5、landbankvalueE-HouseBUS$22.7832%15.08-12%8.62-50%PolyBRmb25.5131%16.00-18%9.15-53%inthenear-termandcouldthereforeweighonsharepriceperformance.YanlordBS$2.2830%1.65-6%1.16-34%AgileBHK$12.8830%8.20-17%4.56-54%HuafaNRmb19.8229%12.22-20%9.49-38%SinoOceanBHK

6、$8.4529%6.20-5%3.76-43%OCTNRmb18.8123%13.60-11%10.70-30%Currentsharepricesareapproachingourbear-casevaluationShuiOnLandNHK$4.6322%4.1810%2.32-39%ForteNHK$2.4118%1.90-7%0.92-55%CountryGardenNHK$3.0517%2.01-23%1.09-58%Recentfallsmeansharepricesareonaverag

7、eonly8%higherthanourSOHONHK$4.3816%4.2914%3.51-7%COLINHK$17.3716%12.11-19%8.76-42%bear-caseyear-end2010NAV.Weviewourbear-caseNAVasattractiveKWGNHK$5.8916%3.92-23%2.31-55%CMP(A)NRmb26.1615%22.20-3%18.90-17%entrylevels;aswewouldexpectpotentiallylessstring

8、entgovernmentFinancialStreetNRmb12.2014%11.639%9.20-14%FranshionNHK$2.8211%2.31-9%1.65-35%GreentownSHK$10.6210%7.36-24%4.11-57%tighteningand/orstrongpropertytransactionvolumesupportintheeventCRLSHK$15.843%11.06-28%7.80-49%SZInvS*