我国交通与经济发展关系的协整分析及实证研究

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1、一爹天洋大謦硕士学位论文学科专业：管理科学与工程作者姓名：I、军峰指导教师：马寿峰教授夭湟大学研究生院2005年1月ABSTRACTTherelationshipsbetweentransportationandeconomyinChinaareanalysedfromthesupplyandthedemandinthispaperusingtheconceptsofcointegrationanderrorcorrectionmodel(ECM)．Thesupplyincludesmileageoftransportroutes．Thedemandincludesnumbersofmoto

2、rvehicles，demandsofpassengerandfreighttransport．Applyingcointegrationtotherelationshipbetweenmileagesoftransportroutesandeconomy,wefundthatmileagesofhighwayshaveacointegrationrelationship谢tlltheeconomy,butthisrelationshipdoesn’tgoforthemileagesofrailwaysandeconomy．Fornumbersofmotorvehicles，bothpass

3、engervehiclesandtruckshaveacointegrationrelationshipwiththeeconomy．Tofreighttransport，allECMisconstructedbasedonintegration,whichdescribestheadjustmentprocessofthetonne—kilometertothelong-runequilibrium．Theresultssuggestthatallparametersestimatedareoftheexpectedsignandthattheuniquelong-runrelations

4、hipexitsamongthetonne-kilometer,theindexoftheindustrialproductionandtheprice．Theindustrialproductionisthemainfactorofinfluencingthefreighttransportwhichisexpectedtogrowatthesarflespeedaccordingtotheindustry．Thefreightperformancesarerelativelyinelastictopricechangestoo．TheECMnotonlyfitstheactualwell

5、，butalsomaintainsoverallatability．Astothepassengertransport,anECMisconstructedbasedonintegration．ThentherecursiveOLSalongwimChowtestisusedtoanalyzeitsstages．Theresultssuggestthattheuniquelong—runrelationshipexitsamongthepassenger-kilometers，GDP,theratioofurbanpopulationtototalpopulationandprice．Eco

6、nomyandpopulationplayanimportantroleinthepassengerperformances．Thepassengerperformancesarerelativelyinelastictopricechanges．Intheshort-run，thefactorseffectingonthedemandsofthepassengertransporthavechangedremarkablysince1990andtheECMofdifferentagesgivemoreclearexplanationofthechange．KEYWORDS：cointeg

7、ration，errorcorrectionmodel，mileagesoftransportroutes，numbersofmotorvehicles，demandsofpassengertransport，demandsoffreighttransport独创性声明本人声明所呈交的学位论文是本人在导师指导下进行的研究工作和取得的研究成果，除了文中特别加以标注和致谢之处外，论文中不包含其他人已经发表或撰写过