发电厂决策支持系统的研究与开发

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1、山东大学硕士学位论文发电厂决策支持系统的研究与开发姓名：李惠波申请学位级别：硕士专业：电气工程指导教师：刘玉田20041012山东大学硕士学位论文ABSTRACTWiththereformofthepowerindustry,Chinahasestablishedthepowergenerationmarket．Thepowerplantswereseparatedfromthetraditionalpowerindustrysysteminwhichthegeneration，transmissionanddistributionbelon

2、gtoaverticalintegration．Powercompaniesarefacingnotonlytheriskoffuelcostbutalsothepricecompetitioninthemarket。Underthisenvironment，itisurgentforthegenerationcompaniestostrengthenthecostmanagementandmakerationalbiddingstrategy．Basedonthecostmanagementtheory,thisdissertationan

3、alysestheconsumedcostofthepowerplantduringproductionandbusinessprocess．Accordingtothecorrelationwithoutput，mecostiSclassifiedasfixcostandvariablecost．Withtheapplicationofregresstheoryandprobabilitytheory,theforecastingmodelofthecostiSestablished，andthentheoutputandprofitale

4、known．ThisiSthefoundationofthecostmanagementandcontr01．Beforethetrade—offthemanagersneedtoknowclearingtherunningCost．Thisdissertationparticularlydescribesamethod，whichCanformthecharacteristiccurveofcost．Theapplicationofgametheoryandprobabilitytheoryispresented．Thestrategymo

5、delisestablishedviaonlyadjustingtheslopeofbiddingcurve，andthenthebiddingofpowermarketcouldbetreatedastwo-persongamingbyintroducingtheconceptof‘'virtualrival”．Furthermore，theproblemofmulti-persongamingandincompleteinformation，whichremainverydifficultinthegametheory,couldbeef

6、ficientlyworkedout．111eapproachtosolvingtheoptimalstrategywithgametheoryisdeveloped．111eoptimalresultonprobabilityCanbegivenbysolvingthesimplemodelwhichlimitofownmaximumgenerationisnotconsidered，andthentheoptimalbiddingstrategybasedonthemarketloadandthevirtualrivalbiddingst

7、rategychanging，Callbeobtainedundertheconsiderationoflimitofownmaximumgenerationbyusingtheparameterestimationtoestimatetheparameterofthevirtualrivalbiddingcurvetosettle．Basedonthetheoreticalstudyandrealapplication，theframeworkofthedecisionsupportsystemisconstructedinthispape

8、r．ThissystembasedonSCADA，DCSandMIS．Itisclosedloopwhichincludesrealcostanalysis，bid