企业财务风险预警模型的比较研究

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1、北京交通大学硕士学位论文企业财务风险预警模型的比较研究姓名：孙瑞雪申请学位级别：硕士专业：会计学指导教师：肖翔20061201ABSTRACT：Enterprisefinancialriskmeansenterprisetolosedebtpayingabilityperhapsanduncertainty,shareholderofincome．FinancialriskEarly-warningmeallSthatpassesthediscernment，measurementandcontrolofth

2、ef'mancialrisk,reducevariouskindsoflossesthattheriskcausetominimumextentwiththecostatleast，avoidtheofficeprocedurethatthefinancialaffairsfail．ParticularlyitisonthebasisofknowingtOenterprise'sfinancialriskaccurately,holdtheriskthroughtheearlywarningsystemoft

3、hefinancialrisk；andtaketheeffectivemeasuretocontroltherisk．Solaunchfinancialriskmanagementandstudythetheorywithimportanceandrealisticmeaning,Callthroughgoonfinancialaffairspredicttoenterprise，findtherisk,itisnotrighttotakeprecautionsagainstSO，reducethefinan

4、cialaffairsandfail．Thispaperisdevotedtoselectoneortwomodelthatissuitabletomarketsituationinchinaordifferentobjective，tohelpdirectors，inve§torsandstocksupervisorstomakemorescientificdecisions．TheworkthatIhavedoneis鹤follow：Firstly,summarizednearlytenfinancial

5、early-warningmodelsathomeandabroadandanalyzedtheirdifferencesamongthemfromallacademicperspective．Secondly,collectedthree—yearf'mancialdatafrom106listedcompanies，Thirdly,builtanalyticmodel，importdataandcomputetheratioandtotal．Atlast,drawtheconclusionandbring

6、forwardsomesuggestionstothegovernmentandtheboardofdirectors．Thenumberofsampleandtheauthenticityofdatamayexerttheinfluenceonthereliabilityofmyconclusion．However，Iamsurethattheconclusionwillbevaluablewhengovernors，investorsandstocksupervisorsselectf'mancialea

7、rly-warningmodelfortheirdecision．KEYWORDS：financialrisk；crisis；early-warningmodel；Z-scoremodelCLASSNO：F253．7：F715．5：F626．115致谢本论文的工作是在我的导师肖翔副教授的悉心指导下完成的，肖老师治学严谨、对科学求实进取、思维敏捷、为人坦率、平易近人、令我终生难忘。在研究生学习的阶段中，肖老师不但在学术上给我不断的指导，而且教会了我许多做人的道理，使我能够孜孜不倦地学习，并培养严谨的治学态度和为

8、人作风，所有这些都将使我受益终生。导师对我的论文进行了精心的指导和仔细的审阅，使我受益颇深，可以说本论文的字里行间都渗透着导师的心血。在此谨向我的导师致以崇高的敬意和衷心的感谢。也要感谢所有关心、帮助过我的老师同学和朋友，他们对我精神上的鼓励和生活上的关心，使我能够专心致志地学习，从事论文写作。此外，感谢我的评阅老师在百忙之中对我的论文进行评阅。最后，向所有关心、支持我的老师、同学和朋友致以最衷心的