后配额时代中国纺织品服装出口增加实证研究

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1、北方工业大学硕士学位论文后配额时代中国纺织品服装出口增加实证研究姓名：辛海申请学位级别：硕士专业：数量经济学指导教师：高洪深;姜延书20060420北方丁业大学硕士学位论文AbstractOnJanuary1st，2005，accordingtotheUruguayRoundtextileandtheclothingagreement(AgreementonTextilesandClothing，iscalledATC)，theglobaltextilequotasystemcomprehensivecancellation，liberaliza

2、tionoftradethetextileandtheclothingwillcometrue，whichmeansthetextileindustrywillfacethePost—quotaErain2005．ThearticleissetinthePost—quotaErawhichisfacedbyChinesetextileandclothingexport．Researchmeaning，theactualresearchstateofhomeandabmad，theresearchbackground，researchmeaning

3、sandframeofthearticleareincludedintheintroduction；Inthesystematicanalysisoftradequota，thedefinitionsofquotaandpost-quota，thecircusofquotaimplement，theformofimportquotaandquotaprovisionaregiven，andtheinfluenceofimportquotaisanalyzed，alltheselayatheoryfoundationthatChinesetexti

4、leandclothingexportwillnotinceasegreatlyfromtheabrodaspectanalysis；IntheexportcircumstanceofChinesetextileandclothingandthecauseofthis，qualitativeanalysisofChineseTextileandClothingExportisdonefromtheaspectofhomeandabroadandthemaincompetitor,thegametheoryisappliedinthetradebe

5、tweenChinaandAmerican，andthesametoEurope，whichvalidatetheinevitabilityoftheexportagreementssubscribedbetweenChinaandAmerican，Eruope，alltheselayatheoryfoundationfortheconclusion；throughthecomparisonbetweenChinaandIndiawhichisthemainChinesecompetitoroftextileandclothingexport，t

6、heexperienceislearned，thereplymeasuresofOurtextileindustryareanalyzed；ThenintheforecastofChinesetextilemadclothingexportinthepost—quotaera，quantitativeanalysisisdoneforthetextileandclothingexport，byusingautoregressiveintegratedmovingaveragemodelandonthebasisofChinesetextilean

7、dclothingexpogdatafromJanuaryof2000toDecemberof2004，thispapercarriesoutforecastanalysisfortheChinesetextileclothingexporttendencyof2005and2006，fromthequantitativeaspecttheconclusionthatChinesetextileandclothingexportwillnotinceasegreatlyisdrawn；Inthelastofconlusionandsuggesti

8、on，fromtheaspectofqualitativeandquantitativeanalysisalldonebefore，pr