中程飞行冲突探测模型以及基于UPF的算法

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1、四川大学硕士学位论文中程飞行冲突探测模型以及基于UPF的算法姓名：曾艳申请学位级别：硕士专业：概率论与数理统计指导教师：周杰20060425四川大学硕士学位论文波中性能较好的一种滤波，因此，论文利用无味粒子滤波技术对冲突概率进行估计，并在此基础上提出了一种基于无味粒子滤波的中程飞行冲突探测算法．最后，论文针对两种不同的航路配置，分别利用我们的算法与Prandini在1999与2000年提出的算法进行计算机模拟．通过对模拟结果的比较，我们发现，在雷达观测误差较小的条件下，本论文的算法可以进～步提高中程飞行冲突探测的准确性．波关键词：中程飞行冲突探测，概率模型，冲突概率，粒子滤波，无味

2、粒子滤一II—四川大学硕士学位论文ANewMid·rangeConflictDetectionModelandAssociatedAlgorithmBasedontheUnscentedParticleFilterMajor：ProbabilityandStatisticsAuthor：ZENGYanSupervisor：ZHOUJieEffectiveconflictdetectionandconflictresolutionarecrucialtothepreventionofpotentialconflict，especiallywhentheairtrafficisbeco

3、mingheavier．Intheconflictdetectionstage，thefuturepositionsofaircraftinauobservedregioncanbepredictedbasedontheircurrentpositionsandflightplans．Ifthepredictedpositionsbetweenanypairofaircraftviolatesafeseparationrequirementsinthefuture，apotentialconflictisdeclared，andtheconflictresolutionshould

4、befollowedupIntheconflictreso—lutionstage，theflightplansofaircraftinvolvedintheconflictshouldbemodifiedThesetwostagesshouldbeperformeduntilthereisnoconflictintheobservedregionConflictdetectionandresolutionareperformedatthreedifferentlevelswithinlong，mid，andshortrangesoftheairtrafficmanagementp

5、rocess．Theworkpresentedhereconcentratesprimarilyonthemid—rangeconflictdetectionInpractice，aircraftmotionisaffectedbymanyfactors，whichwillresultinerrorbetweenaircrafttrajectoriesanditsplanedairway．Hence，thepredictionsofaircrafttrajectoriesareinexactAprobabilisticmodelfortheglobaleffectofthepert

6、urbationsenteringtheaircraftmotionwasproposedbyPaielliandErzbergerin1997．In1999and2000，Prandini，Lygeros，Nilimeta1．studiedmid—rangeconflictdetectionintermsofthisprobabilisticmodel．Toincreasetheaccuracyofmid·rangeconflictdetection，designingamoreac—curateprobabilisticmodelofaircraftmotionisnecess

7、ary．Atfirst，anonlinearanddiscreteprobabilisticmodelisdevelopedtodescribeaircraftmotionsystem．Becauseobservationerrorofradaristakenintoaccount。estimationofprobabilityofconflictshiftstocalculationofposteriorprobabilitydensityofstate．Theor