区域公路网发展规模的预测与优化方法研究

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1、北京交通大学硕士学位论文区域公路网发展规模的预测与优化方法研究姓名：王银华申请学位级别：硕士专业：系统工程指导教师：贾元华20080501ABSTRACTABSTRACT：Reasonabledevelopmentscaleofhighwaynetworkisthebasicparameterwhichusedtoguidethedevelopmentofroadnetworkplanning．Althoughmanyscholarshavegetsomefruitfulresearchingresultsonthescaleofhighwaynetworkinrecentyears，d

2、uetothescaleofregionalroadnetworkiseffectedbymorecomplexfactors，andmeymainlyconfirmthescaleofhighwaynetworkontheexperiencesumupandsimpleanalogySOthatthereasonlackofreliabilityandadaptabili够，thusthecurrenttheoryofthescaleoftheregionalroadnetworkremainshasmanyshortageandnottobeperfect．Therefore,thi

3、sarticleaimstoimprovethecurrentmethodofdeterminingthedevelopmentscaleofhighwaynetworkandtoenableitguidethedifferentregionroadnetworkconstructionanddevelopment．Fromthepo硫ofviewofsystemengineering，啦sarticlefirstanalyzedtheinfluencingfactorsoftheroadnetworkscalebasingonthetheoryofroadtrafficandsocio

4、—economicinteraction．thenestablishedthehierarchicalstructuremodelofinfluencingfactorsoftheroadnetworkscale．Accordingtoforeigndevelopedroadnetworkdevelopmentprocess，thepaperdiscussedtheinternalruleofthedevelopmentofhighwaynetwork．thenitappraisedadvantagesanddisadvantagesofseveralexistingforecastin

5、gmethodsofroadnetworkscale．Inordertoimproveforecastaccuracyandincreasethereliabilityoftheresults，thepaplefoundedthemodelofhighwaynetworkscalepredictionbasedonBPneuralnetworkandMarkovchainstoforecasttheamountofhighwaynetworkinHubeiProvince，theforecasttestresultsprovethatthemodelhasahighaccuracyand

6、reasonableness．Finally,thepaperdefinedthestructuraloptimizationobjectiveandestablishedthemultiobjectiveprogrammingmodelincludingthepolicyinfluencetoreasonablecollocatethehierarchicalofhighway．thePapercalculatethehighwayscaleandreasonablehierarchicalorganizationofhighwayfortheyearof2010，2015and202

7、0inHubeiProvince．KEYWORDS：highwaynetwork；scale；BPneuralnetwork；multiobjectiveprogrammingCI。ASSNO：IJ491学位论文版权使用授权书本学位论文作者完全了解北京交通大学有关保留、使用学位论文的规定。特授权北京交通大学可以将学位论文的全部或部分内容编入有关数据库进行检索，并采用影印、缩印或扫描等复制手段保存、汇编以供查阅和借阅。同意学校向国家有