影响粮食产量的因素分析

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1、计量经济学论文影响粮食产量的因素分析姓名：班级：xxxxxxx学号：xxxxxxx影响粮食产量的因素分析我国土地资源稀缺，人口多而粮食需求量大，因此粮食产量的稳定增长，直接影响着人民生活和社会的稳定与发展。本文严格按照计量经济分析方法,以1996-2015年中国粮食产量及其重要因素的时间序列数据为样本,对影响中国粮食生产的多种因素进行了分析。一、模型的建立以Yi=粮食产量、X1=粮食播种面积、X2=农用化肥施用量、X3=农用机械总动力、X4=农、林、牧、渔业劳动力、X5=耕地灌溉面积，设定Yi=c+β1X1i+β2X2i+β3X3i+

2、β4X4i+β5X5i+ui理论模型。由经济规律知β1、β2、β3、β4、β5都应大于零。二、数据的收集（资料来源于中国各年统计年鉴）年份粮食产量（万吨）粮食播种面积（千公顷）农用化肥施用量（万吨）农用机械总动力（万千瓦）农、林、牧、渔业劳动力（万人）耕地灌溉面积（千公顷）199650453.51125483827.938546.93291050381.4199749417.11129123980.742015.63309551238.5199851229.51137874083.745207.73323252295.61999508

3、38.61131614124.348996.13349353158.4200046217.51084634146.452573.63335553820.3200145263.71060804253.855172.13297454249.4200245705.81038914339.457929.93248754354.9200343069.5994104411.657929.9484.554014.2200446946.91016064636.664027.9466.154478.4200548402.21042784766.2683

4、97.8446.355029.3200649804.21049584927.772522.1435.255750.5200750160.31056385107.876589.6426.356518.3200852870.9106793523982190.4410.158471.7200953082.11089865404.487496.1373.759261.4201054647.71098765561.792780.5375.760347.7201157120.81105735704.297734.7359.561681.62012

5、589581112055838.8102559338.962490.5201360193.81119565911.9103906.8294.863473.3201460702.61127235995.9108056.6284.664539.5201562143.91133436022.6111728.127065872.6三、模型的参数估计利用Eviews8得到结果如下：DependentVariable:YMethod:LeastSquaresDate:06/01/17Time:20:10Sample:19962015Include

6、dobservations:20VariableCoefficientStd.Errort-StatisticProb.  C-66773.8737106.01-1.7995430.0935X10.7900680.1191396.6314990.0000X21.7688438.0599230.2194620.8295X3-0.0286920.338671-0.0847200.9337X4-0.0870170.051349-1.6946140.1123X50.4777650.6637450.7198020.4835R-squared0.

7、976250    Meandependentvar51861.43AdjustedR-squared0.967768    S.D.dependentvar5548.066S.E.ofregression996.0571    Akaikeinfocriterion16.88881Sumsquaredresid13889816    Schwarzcriterion17.18753Loglikelihood-162.8881    Hannan-Quinncriter.16.94712F-statistic115.0958    D

8、urbin-Watsonstat1.811852Prob(F-statistic)0.000000由此数据看出，可决系数和修正可决系数为0.976250和0.967768，F的检验值为115.0958，明显显著，拟合效果