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时间:2019-04-29
《影响粮食产量的因素分析》由会员上传分享,免费在线阅读,更多相关内容在学术论文-天天文库。
1、计量经济学论文影响粮食产量的因素分析姓名:班级:xxxxxxx学号:xxxxxxx影响粮食产量的因素分析我国土地资源稀缺,人口多而粮食需求量大,因此粮食产量的稳定增长,直接影响着人民生活和社会的稳定与发展。本文严格按照计量经济分析方法,以1996-2015年中国粮食产量及其重要因素的时间序列数据为样本,对影响中国粮食生产的多种因素进行了分析。一、模型的建立以Yi=粮食产量、X1=粮食播种面积、X2=农用化肥施用量、X3=农用机械总动力、X4=农、林、牧、渔业劳动力、X5=耕地灌溉面积,设定Yi=c+β1X1i+β2X2i+β3X3i+
2、β4X4i+β5X5i+ui理论模型。由经济规律知β1、β2、β3、β4、β5都应大于零。二、数据的收集(资料来源于中国各年统计年鉴)年份粮食产量(万吨)粮食播种面积(千公顷)农用化肥施用量(万吨)农用机械总动力(万千瓦)农、林、牧、渔业劳动力(万人)耕地灌溉面积(千公顷)199650453.51125483827.938546.93291050381.4199749417.11129123980.742015.63309551238.5199851229.51137874083.745207.73323252295.61999508
3、38.61131614124.348996.13349353158.4200046217.51084634146.452573.63335553820.3200145263.71060804253.855172.13297454249.4200245705.81038914339.457929.93248754354.9200343069.5994104411.657929.9484.554014.2200446946.91016064636.664027.9466.154478.4200548402.21042784766.2683
4、97.8446.355029.3200649804.21049584927.772522.1435.255750.5200750160.31056385107.876589.6426.356518.3200852870.9106793523982190.4410.158471.7200953082.11089865404.487496.1373.759261.4201054647.71098765561.792780.5375.760347.7201157120.81105735704.297734.7359.561681.62012
5、589581112055838.8102559338.962490.5201360193.81119565911.9103906.8294.863473.3201460702.61127235995.9108056.6284.664539.5201562143.91133436022.6111728.127065872.6三、模型的参数估计利用Eviews8得到结果如下:DependentVariable:YMethod:LeastSquaresDate:06/01/17Time:20:10Sample:19962015Include
6、dobservations:20VariableCoefficientStd.Errort-StatisticProb. C-66773.8737106.01-1.7995430.0935X10.7900680.1191396.6314990.0000X21.7688438.0599230.2194620.8295X3-0.0286920.338671-0.0847200.9337X4-0.0870170.051349-1.6946140.1123X50.4777650.6637450.7198020.4835R-squared0.
7、976250 Meandependentvar51861.43AdjustedR-squared0.967768 S.D.dependentvar5548.066S.E.ofregression996.0571 Akaikeinfocriterion16.88881Sumsquaredresid13889816 Schwarzcriterion17.18753Loglikelihood-162.8881 Hannan-Quinncriter.16.94712F-statistic115.0958 D
8、urbin-Watsonstat1.811852Prob(F-statistic)0.000000由此数据看出,可决系数和修正可决系数为0.976250和0.967768,F的检验值为115.0958,明显显著,拟合效果
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