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1、COREU.S.Multi-IndustryRipeconditionsforsomere-balanceofinvestorpositioningInsomeofourrecentsectorreports(Afterareliefbounce;LongCycle/ShortCycleSpreadmaynarrow,March13,2019;Q1Preview:Growth‘softlanding’lookingmorelikely,April3,2019),wehavehighlightedacoupleofintriguing(tous)tr
2、endsintermsofintra-sectorMIspreadsasregardsfundamentalsandvaluation/priceINDUSTRYUPDATEU.S.Multi-IndustryNEUTRALUnchangedU.S.Multi-IndustryJulianMitchell+12125261661EquityResearch7April2019performance.Inourdiscussionbelow,wetrytofurtherexplorecurrentinvestorpositioning/valua
3、tionbasedontheendmarkets/perceived‘profile’ofaMulti-Industrycompany’soperations(ShortCycle,LongCycle),itsbusinessmodel/degreeofearningsvolatility(Compounders,Defensive),aswellashowinvestorstendtoviewthemthroughthelensofinvestmentstyles(Cheap,Value,Quality,Growth).Wearewellawar
4、eofthepitfallsoftryingtoclassify(whendoesaLinnaeanapproachstarttoresembleaProcrusteanone?)whataregenerallydiversecompaniesbydefinition(Multi-Industry)intospecificcategories,butthinkthatitcanbeasomewhatusefulexercise,particularlywhenmappingtrendsandopportunitiesinoursectoragain
5、stthoseinbroaderequitymarketsorassetclasses.Ourimpressioninrecentmonthsisthattheinvestmentcommunityconsensushasbecomeoverwhelmingintermsofitspreferencefor‘LongCycle’marketsinoursector(USconstruction,A&D,Healthcare),aswellascertain‘Quality’names(suchastheCompounders),andthishas
6、createdanopportunityforsomeofthe‘cheaper’and/orShortCycleMIstockstoenjoysomethingofarecovery.Partlyduetothisemerging‘imbalance’,weinitiatedcoverageonPHatOWlatelastyear(PH:InitiateatOverweight:Expectationsrebased,valuationclosetotrough;Sep6,2018),andweupgradedKMTtoOWrecently(KM
7、T:PickingupPennies;UpgradetoOW;April3,2019).Some‘cheap’namesthatmaybedueacatch-upincludeGE(whichweupgradedtoOWlatelastyear;GE:Phoenixmaystarttoemergefromtheflames;UpgradetoOverweight;Oct8,2018);weunderstandthatbasedonYear1FCFmetrics,itlookstheoppositeof‘cheap’),andCFX(whichweu
8、pgradedtoEWafewweeksago;CFX:UnderappreciatedTurnaroundStory;M
