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1、COREU.S.Multi-IndustryGlobalIndustrialLearningsfromEarnings(Part4):Processrecovering,Powerdoldrums,F&BstrengthINDUSTRYUPDATEU.S.Multi-IndustryNEUTRALUnchangedEquityResearch3August2018Mid-downstreamO&GmayseizethebatonofgrowthfromUpstream:WecontinuetoForafulllistofou
2、rratings,pricetargetandearningschangesinthisreport,pleaseseetableonpage2.classifyUpstreamO&Gaslaterinitsup-cyclethanDownstream/processrelatedmarkets.GDIisnowseeingProcessmarketsrecover,withhealthyorderinflowinDownstreamEnergyaswellaswater/wastewater,pulp&paperandchemi
3、calprocessing.Siemenscommentedthat‘ProcessIndustries&Drivesseemstohavereachedthetrough’.Inupstream,wehaveheardmoretoconcernussinceour‘LearningsfromEarnings#3,PublishedJuly26,2018’,withFTSciting‘severalofourcustomershavereducedactivityasaresultofchangesintheircapitalbu
4、dgetsandhigher-than-expectedcompletionsefficiencies’,aswellaspricingdegradation.Short-cycleconsumer,andF&B,strength:Gateswasthelatestcompanytohighlightanimprovementinshort-cycleconsumerdemand(itsAutoAMbusinessswungtohighsingledigitgrowthinQ2).Somewhatrelated,capitalsp
5、endinginFood&Beverageisrobust;RXNisseeingstrongF&BdemandinProcess,Siemenscited‘quitenicemomentum’inUSF&B,andFLOWenjoyed21%ordergrowthinF&B.Powerstillinthedoldrums:InThermalPowerGen,Siemenscommentedthatthelargegasturbinemarketmaysee‘potentiallyfurtherdecliningturbinevo
6、lumescomparedto2018’,anditsPGmarginthereforewouldbe‘lowtomidsingledigit’in2019,after‘midsingledigit’in2018.InPowerGrid,Siemenshighlightedweakerlargeordersduetopush-outsofsomeHVDCprojects‘intofiscal2019andbeyond’.Short-cycleindustrial–murkyoutlook:Thereisafinebalancebe
7、tweenwhatis‘conservative’andwhatis‘scary’asregardstheupcomingshort-cycleslowdown.InChinashort-cycle,SiemensCEOstatedthat‘Idon’texpectanyclifftypeofthing,butthere’sdefinitelyamoderationintermsofgrowthmomentum’,whileinUSautomotive,‘theyhavebeenmoderatingtheirmomentumalr
8、eadyquiteabit’.PH’sdiversifiedindustrialordersgrowthslowedby200-300bps,buttheguidanceofaslowingtolow-midsingledigitorganicsa
