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1、LifeInsurance1Q19OutlookL-TFundamentalsMixed,butImprovingResultsandDepressedValuationsCreateAttractiveRisk-RewardWemaintainabullishstanceonlifeinsurancestocks.Inourview,businessfundamentalswillremainmixed,butimproveversus2018.This,coupledwithdownbeatinvestorsentimentanddepress
2、edvaluationlevels,createsattractiverisk-reward.Onapositivenote,lifeinsurershaveamplecapitalflexibility.Also,weprojectsales/flowsinmostproductstoimproveandexpectpricinginstayrational.Conversely,weexpectthesector’sROEtobarelyexceeditscostofequityandremainwaryoftailriskinlegacyLT
3、CandVAbooks.·RaisingEPSestimates.WeareraisingourEPSestimatesforseveralinsurerstoreflectthestrongequitymarketthusfarthisyear,partiallyoffsetbythedeclineinnewmoneyyields.Despitetheincrease,our2019and2020forecastsformostcompaniesarebelowconsensus.WefeelthatstreetforecastsforAIG,A
4、TH,andVOYAareespeciallyoptimistic.Conversely,ourprojectionsforEQHandPFGareaboveconsensuslevels.·Weexpectlifeinsurers’resultstoimproveversuslastyear.Earningsinequity-sensitiveproductsshouldbenefitfromhigherAUMbalancesandfeeincome.Also,weforecastsalesandnetflowsinmostproductstob
5、emodest,butimprovefrom2018levels.Whilehighlylikelyinthelongrun,wedonotanticipatemajorLTCcharges,whichhurtresultslastyear,inthenearterm.Inaddition,mostcompaniesshouldremainactivewithsharebuybacksanddividendhikes.Onacautiousnote,lownewmoneyyieldsremainaheadwind,butweexpectthepac
6、eofspreadcompressiontoabatethrough2019.Also,giventhetypical1-quarterlagforprivateequityfunds,alternativeinvestmentincomeshouldbeweakin1Q19,althoughitshouldimprovesignificantlyin2Q19.·Uptickincreditlossesandsustainedlowinterestrateskeyrisksfacinginsurancestocks.Afterrisingstead
7、ilythroughmostof2018,interestrateshavedeclinedrecently.Also,unlikelastyear,creditspreadsinmostassetclasseswhereinsurersinvesthavecompressed.Weestimatethatnewmoneyyieldsinlifeinsurers’portfoliosdropped50-60bpsin1Q19.Meanwhile,wefeelthathealthycapitalandliquiditylevelsshouldhelp
8、lifeinsurerswithstandanuptickininvestmentlossesbetterthanduri
