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1、By:FredericNeumannandQuHongbinEconomicsAsiaQ22019www.research.hsbc.comAsianEconomicsWithaboostfromChinaTheslowingglobaltradeandtechcyclesaremakingforabumpyflightinAsiaButpolicyeasinginChina,centredontaxcuts,addsplentyofextrafuelDespitealltheturbulenc
2、e,theregionthusremainsoncourseintheYearofthePigPlayvideowithFredericNeumannDisclosures&Disclaimer:ThisreportmustbereadwiththedisclosuresandtheanalystcertificationsintheDisclosureappendix,andwiththeDisclaimer,whichformspartofit.ExecutivesummaryBitofast
3、umble.Afterholdingupwellformostof2018,activityinmuchofAsiahasstartedtosaglastquarter.Exportsarepartlytoblame,andnotjustbecauseofdisruptionsfromtheUS-Chinatradetensions:theglobalindustrialcycleisslippingandthedemandforelectronicshasweakenedsharply.Theg
4、oodnews,however,isthatpolicymakersareresponding.TheFed,forone,signalledapauseforthisyear,whichopensupspaceforratecutsinanumberofmarkets.Morepotently,Chinabeatexpectationsandunveiledapunchytaxcutpackage.ThisshouldgoalongwaytostabilizeMainlanddemandinth
5、ecomingquarters,andtherebyputafloorunderregionaltrade.Thereis,itseems,stillsomegasleftinthetank.NowforthebiggerpictureItwasabumpyridelastyear,admittedly.Threebigshadowssuddenlyemergedovertheglobaleconomy.TheFed’stighteninglitafireunderthedollar,whippi
6、ngfinancialmarketsabout,notleastinemergingmarketsespeciallysensitivetochangesinglobalfundingcosts.Then,tradetensionsbetweentheUSandChinariskedputtingadentinexports,whileraisinggreaterquestionsaboutthefutureshapeoftheworldeconomy.Andbymid-year,China,lo
7、ngtheglobalgrowthengine,startedtosputter,addingtotheworriesforinvestors.Dark,darkshadows.Atlast,somelightisstartingtoshinethrough.TheFedhassignalledapausetoitstighteningcyclethisyear,relievingpressureonhard-pressedborrowers.SignsofatrucebetweenChinaan
8、dtheUSarealsoencouraging,withadealpossiblebymid-year,evenifdoubtslinger.AndChina,atlast,hassteppedupeffortstoshoreupgrowth,fromtaxcutstoamarginallooseningofthemonetaryreins.Takeoutthesunlotion,then,andheadtothebeach?Notquite.AsHSBC’sGlobalChie
