全球-海洋运输业-全球海运业：绿色航运——现在都上船了

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1、ABGlobalResearch4April2019EquitiesGlobalIndustrialYong-SukSon,CFAAnalystyongsuk.son@ubs.com+82-2-37028804SvenWeierAnalystsven.weier@ubs.com+49-69-13698278HenriPatricot,CFAAnalysthenri.patricot@ubs.com+33-1-48883033EricLinAnalysteric-p.lin@ubs.com+852-37123640PeterGastreichAnalys

2、tpeter.gastreich@ubs.com+852-29716121TimBushAnalysttim-d.bush@ubs.com+852-29716113MagnusKruber,CFAAnalystmagnus.kruber@ubs.com+46-8-4537311CherylLee,CFAAnalystcheryl.lee@ubs.com+65-64955914JunHaradaAnalystjun.harada@ubs.com+81-3-52086243JarrodCastle,CFAAnalystjarrod.castle@ubs.co

3、m+44-20-75688883YoonChoAssociateAnalystyoon.cho@ubs.com+82-2-37028805GlobalMarineSectorUBSEvidenceLabinside:greenshipping–allonboardnow?9MandcountingtoIMO2020;UBSEvidenceLabshippingsurveyhighlightsThesecondUBSEvidenceLabsurveyof50shippingexecutivessuggeststheshippingindustryisbet

4、terpreparedfortheupcomingmarineenvironmentrulesthanitwasintheinauguralsurveyinApril2018(seeourQ-seriesreporthere).ThesurveysupportsourviewthatIMO2020couldboostrefiners'profits,aviewnotsharedbyallgivenriskoflowcompliance,whichwealsodisagreewith.Thesharpriseinintenttoretrofitscrubb

5、ersandbuynewshipstomeetthenewrulesisasurprise,asisinteresttoscrapobsoleteships.WemovefromanegativetoaneutralstanceonAsianshippingandshipbuildingandareselectivelypositiveonrefinersandEuropeancapitalgoods.ReaffirmrefinersandselectedEuropeancapitalgoodsaspossiblebeneficiariesImporta

6、ntly,79%ofrespondentsplantoadheretothenewsulphurcap(IMO2020)byJanuary2020comparedwith64%previously(UBS-e80%),whilecompliantfuelisstillmostpreferredtomeetIMO2020rules,unchangedat68%.Thissupportsourviewthatitwillboostrefiners'profitfromH219(seepage38forsensitivityanalysistocomplian

7、celevels).ThesharpriseinintenttousescrubbersforIMO2020andbackendadoptionofBWTSin2019-24areinlinewithourpositiveviewonselectedsuppliers.ButmovetoamorebalancedviewonAsianshipyardsandshippingWemoveforwardthebottomoftheglobalnewshipordercyclebyoneyearto2019asthesurveysuggestsanincrea

8、seintheintenttobuynewshipstocomplywithIM