2019Q2全球经济增长放缓

2019Q2全球经济增长放缓

ID:35788104

大小:1.81 MB

页数:147页

时间:2019-04-18

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1、EconomicsGlobalQ22019www.research.hsbc.comBy:JanetHenryandJamesPomeroyGlobalEconomicsPoisedforslowergrowthFinancialmarketshaverevivedonthebackofaglobalcentralbank“pivot”……butthathasbeentriggeredbyslowergrowth,lowerinflation…andafearthatthingscouldgetworsePl

2、ayvideowithJanetHenryDisclosures&Disclaimer:ThisreportmustbereadwiththedisclosuresandtheanalystcertificationsintheDisclosureappendix,andwiththeDisclaimer,whichformspartofit.ExecutiveSummaryThecentralbankpivotArevivalinriskappetiteGlobalgrowthisstillslowingb

3、utequitymarketshavebeenrising,insomecasesmorethanreversingthedramaticequitymarketdeclinesoflate2018.ExpectationsthataUS-Chinatradedealisimminentand–moreimportantly–theUSFederalReserveisonholdin2019,havebeensufficienttoreviveriskappetiteandthehuntforyield.Mo

4、reover,thenowextremely“patient”Fedhasbeenaccompaniedbyamoregeneralpivotbycentralbanksglobally:theECBhasdelayedthelikelytimingofitsfirstraterisewhileemergingmarkets,mostofwhichwereonatighteningpathin2018,nowlooksetforthenextmovetobedownwards.Indiahasalreadyt

5、akenthefirststep.Despitethemarketrally,thefactisthe“pivot”hasbeenaresponsetotheslowergrowthandlower-than-expectedinflationatatimeofhighuncertainty:regardingtradetensions,Brexitand,shouldthecurrentslowdownevolveintosomethingworse,concernsaboutthepolicyoption

6、savailabletofightthenextdownswing.Theargumentsinfavourofpatienceareclear-cut.Ifinflationsurprisesontheupside,centralbanksknowtheycanraiserates.Ifitsurprisesonthedownside,theyfacemuchbiggerchallenges.CloudyoutlookThegrowthoutlookhasbecomeincreasinglycloudy.T

7、heslowdownofthepastyearhasnotbeenquiteassynchronisedastheupswingthatprecededit,eitheracrosssectorsorgeographies.Industryhasslowedmuchmoredramaticallythanservices,evenpushingsomepartsofEuropeandLatinAmericaintoorclosetorecession.USdataheldupmuchbetter,helped

8、alongbytheheftyfiscalstimulus.Althoughtherewereindicationsthatsomeoftheone-offcountry-specificfactorsdraggingdownindustrialproductionhadruntheircourse,theweaknessisnowincreasinglywidespread.Industrialp

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