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1、EconomicsGlobalQ22019www.research.hsbc.comBy:JanetHenryandJamesPomeroyGlobalEconomicsPoisedforslowergrowthFinancialmarketshaverevivedonthebackofaglobalcentralbank“pivot”……butthathasbeentriggeredbyslowergrowth,lowerinflation…andafearthatthingscouldgetworsePl
2、ayvideowithJanetHenryDisclosures&Disclaimer:ThisreportmustbereadwiththedisclosuresandtheanalystcertificationsintheDisclosureappendix,andwiththeDisclaimer,whichformspartofit.ExecutiveSummaryThecentralbankpivotArevivalinriskappetiteGlobalgrowthisstillslowingb
3、utequitymarketshavebeenrising,insomecasesmorethanreversingthedramaticequitymarketdeclinesoflate2018.ExpectationsthataUS-Chinatradedealisimminentand–moreimportantly–theUSFederalReserveisonholdin2019,havebeensufficienttoreviveriskappetiteandthehuntforyield.Mo
4、reover,thenowextremely“patient”Fedhasbeenaccompaniedbyamoregeneralpivotbycentralbanksglobally:theECBhasdelayedthelikelytimingofitsfirstraterisewhileemergingmarkets,mostofwhichwereonatighteningpathin2018,nowlooksetforthenextmovetobedownwards.Indiahasalreadyt
5、akenthefirststep.Despitethemarketrally,thefactisthe“pivot”hasbeenaresponsetotheslowergrowthandlower-than-expectedinflationatatimeofhighuncertainty:regardingtradetensions,Brexitand,shouldthecurrentslowdownevolveintosomethingworse,concernsaboutthepolicyoption
6、savailabletofightthenextdownswing.Theargumentsinfavourofpatienceareclear-cut.Ifinflationsurprisesontheupside,centralbanksknowtheycanraiserates.Ifitsurprisesonthedownside,theyfacemuchbiggerchallenges.CloudyoutlookThegrowthoutlookhasbecomeincreasinglycloudy.T
7、heslowdownofthepastyearhasnotbeenquiteassynchronisedastheupswingthatprecededit,eitheracrosssectorsorgeographies.Industryhasslowedmuchmoredramaticallythanservices,evenpushingsomepartsofEuropeandLatinAmericaintoorclosetorecession.USdataheldupmuchbetter,helped
8、alongbytheheftyfiscalstimulus.Althoughtherewereindicationsthatsomeoftheone-offcountry-specificfactorsdraggingdownindustrialproductionhadruntheircourse,theweaknessisnowincreasinglywidespread.Industrialp