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1、AmericanEconomicAssociationTheNAIRU,UnemploymentandMonetaryPolicyAuthor(s):DouglasStaiger,JamesH.Stock,MarkW.WatsonReviewedwork(s):Source:TheJournalofEconomicPerspectives,Vol.11,No.1(Winter,1997),pp.33-49Publishedby:AmericanEconomicAssociationStableURL:http://www.jstor.org/stable
2、/2138250.Accessed:08/01/201202:01YouruseoftheJSTORarchiveindicatesyouracceptanceoftheTerms&ConditionsofUse,availableat.http://www.jstor.org/page/info/about/policies/terms.jspJSTORisanot-for-profitservicethathelpsscholars,researchers,andstudentsdiscover,use,andbuilduponawiderangeo
3、fcontentinatrusteddigitalarchive.Weuseinformationtechnologyandtoolstoincreaseproductivityandfacilitatenewformsofscholarship.FormoreinformationaboutJSTOR,pleasecontactsupport@jstor.org.AmericanEconomicAssociationiscollaboratingwithJSTORtodigitize,preserveandextendaccesstoTheJourna
4、lofEconomicPerspectives.http://www.jstor.orgJournalofEconomicPerspectives-Volume11,Number1-Winter1997-Pages33-49TheNAIRU,UnemploymentandMonetaryPolicyDouglasStaiger,JamesH.Stock,andMarkW.WatsonSinceMiltonFriedman's(1968)presidentialaddresstotheAmericanEco-nomicAssociation,oneofth
5、emostenduringideasinmacroeconomicshasLJbeenthatinflationwillincreasewhenunemploymentpersistsbelowitsnat-uralrate,theso-calledNAIRU,ornonacceleratinginflationrateofunemployment.ButwhatistheNAIRU?Isit5.8percentasestimatedbytheCBO(1996)?Isit5.7percentasusedbytheCouncilofEconomicAdvi
6、sors(1996)or5.6percentasestimatedbyGordon(thisissue)?Orcanunemploymentsafelygomuchlower,asrecentlyarguedbyEisner(1995a,b)?Forallof1995andthefirsttwoquartersof1996,unemploymenthoveredaround5.6percent,whileinflationremainedincheck.Thishasledtoadebateamongacademicsandpolicymakersove
7、rwhethertherehasbeenadeclineintheNAIRUand,moregenerally,whethereconomistsshouldcontinuetorelyonunemploymentandtheNAIRUasindicatorsofanover-heatedeconomy(Weiner,1993,1994;Tootell,1994;Fuhrer,1995;CouncilofEco-nomicAdvisors,1996,pp.51-57;CongressionalBudgetOffice,1996,pp.5,27).Atth
8、eheartofthisdebatelieseveralempiricalque
