人民币在中国：其价值、其可调节汇率和其未来发展[文献翻译]

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1、外文原文TheChineseRMB:ItsValue,ItsPeg,andItsFuture--TRADEIMBALANCESHAVEMORETODOWITHTHEU.S.THANWITHCHINAThevaluationoftheChineserenminbi(RMB)hasdrawnlotsofattentionlatelyandagreatdealofpressureonthepartofdevelopednationsforrevaluation.Inaddressingtheissueofvaluation,thispaperdevelopsane

2、wpurchasingpowerparity(PPP)indexofChina’sexchangerateandfindsthatthewhileundervalued,theundervaluationisneitherunusualnorbadpolicy.Moreover,China’soverallexternaltradebalancedoesnotseemtobethatfaroutofequilibrium.China’sdesiretojointheG-7clubislikelytoresultinabandoningitspeg,howev

3、er,despitetheincreasedrisktoitseconomicdevelopment.ThevaluationoftheChineserenminbi(RMB)hasdrawnlotsofattentionlately.TheIMF,theU.S.government,andtheG-7financeministersareurgingChinatorevalueitscurrency,whichiscurrentlypeggedat8.28tothedollar.TheargumentsforChinatoappreciateitscurr

4、encyroughlyfollowtheselines:•China’scurrencyisgrosslyundervalued;•theundervaluedRMBisattractingafloodofhotmoneyintoChina,complicatingtheauthorities’effortstoengineerasoft-landingforanoverheatedeconomy;and•theRMB’sundervaluationanditspegtothedollararepreventingotherAsiancountriesfro

5、mallowingcurrenciestoriseagainstthedollar,sinceappreciationwoulddamagecompetivenessrelativetoChina.Thislastpointisofparticularconcernbecause,itisargued,U.S.externalimbalancescannotbeaddressedinthefaceofChina’sandotherAsiannations’historicallyunprecedentedaccumulationsofU.S.dollarre

6、servesinrecentyears.TherehavebeenmanystudiesontheRMB’svaluationwithinconclusive,contradictoryresults(see,e.g.,Wang,2004).Toaddressthatdifficultvaluationquestion,thispaperdevelopsanewabsolutePPPindexthatmeasuresChina’sPPPagainsttheUnitedStatesandothercountries.ThenewindexshowstheRMB

7、tobesubstantiallyundervaluedinthecontextof“conventionalwisdom.”However,theundervaluationisnotunusual,givenChina’slevelofeconomicdevelopment;andconventionalwisdomdoesnotapplytoChina,becausebyanymeasureitisanundevelopednationforwhichacurrencypegisusefultomaintaindomesticeconomicandpo

8、liticalstability(Prasadeta